Bhubaneswar: Even as the surge of Covid-19 cases in the second wave clocked 48-hours to leap into the 370-plus count per day like the first wave, the big worrying trend is Bhubaneswar has now slipped into the ‘critical’ Covid-19 incidence state from ‘medium-risk last week.
Moreover, when the peak in Bhubaneswar (on September 3, 2020) has recorded 580 cases, the average rate of growth during the last 7-days indicates that the Smart City may touch the 1500-mark during the second wave peak in the last week of April, provided the current rate of transmission continues.
COVID-19 INCIDENCE TURNS CRITICAL IN BHUBANESWAR
The corona curve in the Smart city took a drastic turn in the last 96 hours, as the City moved from a state of medium-risk incidence to a ‘critical’ one.
As per WHO Covid-19 incidence norms, the daily infections in the City since the last 24 hours have remained over 25 per lakh, as a consequence, the State capital has slipped into a state of ‘critical’ incidence.
The daily new cases per lakh in Bhubaneswar touched 26.4 yesterday, and have zoomed to a high of around 32.6 per lakh today.
In tandem, the recovery rate in the City dropped to a new low of 17.4 per cent 36.4 per cent on April 11.
WILL THE PEAK COUNT TOUCH A NEW HIGH?
The rate of growth in new infections during the last 14-days hint at the daily count of infections touching a new high in Bhubaneswar during the ongoing second wave.
While during the 7-day period of April 1-7, the average rate of growth in the new case had been 20 per cent, the rate jumped to 22 per cent during the subsequent week ended on April 14.
With the epidemic curve of the city showing the brisk rate of transmission and the Daily infection rate jumping to 0.2 from 0.11 on April 10, if the current rate of growth in daily infections continues then in the last week of April, the daily infections in the Capital city are projected to touch the 1500-mark.
DOUBLING RATE GETS SHORTER IN CAPITAL CITY
As the new infections in the city clock a spiralling growth, the doubling rate for the city gets shorter. At the current rate, the new infections per day may double in just 5-days from nearly 6.4 days on April 9.
This shows the transmission is spreading fast in the Capital City.
DAILY POSITIVE RATE IN SMART CITY
As per BMC Commissioner Prem Chandra Chaudhary, the tests conducted in the government sector hovers between 1,500- 2000 per day. The proportion of RTPCR to RAT has been estimated at around 54:46.
“Besides nearly 2000 tests per day, the private hospitals/testing labs in the city conduct around 500-800 tests per day. The testing rate in Bhubaneswar is sufficient,” claimed Chaudhary.
ARE THE TESTS ENOUGH?
The WHO guidelines say, if the ratio of tests per confirmed cases remains below 20, then the number of tests need to be raised as the society has many undetected asymptomatic cases that could be spreading the infections.
Considering the tests to be around 3000 per day (2000 in the government sector and 1000 in private), the ratio of tests per confirmed cases in the Capital City hovered between 7.91 to 9.77.
Since the ratio is nearly half of what required, the tests in the City need to be raised to over 4000 to immediately contain the City from recording a bigger peak.