Why cyclone Dana could not gain strength? IMD lists factors

Issuing forecast regarding weak cyclones compared to more intense and powerful cyclones is always challenging, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) after several models suggested different facts regarding severe cyclonic storm Dana.

However, IMD’s forecast regarding intensity, path and landfall proved to be correct.

In an exclusive interview, IMD scientist Umashankar Das on Friday informed that IMD’s forecast regarding wind speed and other aspects was correct even though other models suggested different path.

Factors For Which Cyclone Dana Could Not Gain Strength

According to Das, the severe cyclonic storm Dana got sandwiched due to the two anti-cyclonic circulations in east and west. It is for this reason that the cyclone Dana did not get support to intensify or gain strength as far as rainfall is concerned.

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As a result, the areas through which the cyclonic storm Dana passed witnessed heavy rainfall during its movement and landfall. Similarly, the intensity of rainfall was also less in nearby areas, said Das.

Forecast Of Cyclone Dana Was Tough

The forecast of severe cyclonic storm Dana was tough, but IMD’s forecast and probable track was correct, said IMD. The timing of landfall predicted by IMD that the entire landfall process will start from October 24 and continue till forenoon of October 25 was also accurate. Similarly, there has been no change in the probable track suggested by the IMD.

“After 6 am today, several districts of Odisha witnessed rise in wind speed and rainfall. The intensity which was expected in some districts was not witnessed to the above factors. However, some districts in coastal areas are likely to experience heavy rainfall activities,” said Das.

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Usually issuing forecast regarding weak cyclonic storms compared to intense cyclones is challenge, be it Cyclone Fani, Amphan or Titli. However, IMD’s forecast was pin-pointed as far as track and landfall is concerned. 

"In the past, we have seen that weak cyclones like Gulab or Aasani were influenced from outer factors but it is not the case of intense or powerful cyclones whose path and other forecast is concerned," Das added.