Odisha is unlikely to record any rainfall, including thunderstorms, for the next 48 hours, as the monsoon trough line will take a northern tilt in the next 24 hours. The big dampening forecast for the State is rainfall will be very chequered in Odisha till mid-September.
Though districts in western Odisha are predicted to record rain and thundershower from August 25, rains will be lashing the coastal districts by Aug end, only to record dry days till September 7. The heartening prediction is a low pressure area will form very near the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts on September 6.
As per the NCEP forecast, nearly 80 per cent of the districts in the State, except Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Angul, Dhenkanal and Sundargarh, are predicted to record rainfall in the range of 125-150mm during the period of August 30-September 7.
The forecast says while coastal districts will be receiving around 125mm, districts adjacent to Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will be recording rainfall in the range of 150-160mm during the period mentioned above.
Low Pressure In Bay
As per the US-GFS model forecast, a low pressure area will develop very close to Andhra Pradesh - Odisha coast on and around September 6. The model forecast further predicts that the system will cross Andhra Pradesh coasts, thereby, bringing heavy rains to the neighbouring State.
The place of its formation will give little scope for the system to develop into a depression or cyclone.
As a result of the weather system, Odisha is predicted to record light to heavy rainfall from the morning hours on September 6. The detailed model forecast shows that Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput, Malakngiri and Ganjam are going to record nearly 3mm rain per hour on September 6 and 7. Districts like Nabarangpur, Kalahandi etc are predicted to see moderate rainfall, whereas the rest of the districts in the State may witness light rainfall in the range of 0.5-1mm per hour.
IITM's Multi-Modal Ensemble Forecast
The model forecast by this ace tropical oceanic research institution of the Government of India reveals that Odisha is not going to receive excess rainfall during the week of September 9 -15. It predicts that the State is predicted to record normal to below normal rainfall during the period of Sept 9-15, except the districts from Kendrapada to Balasore.
The APEC Balm
However, if the recent seasonal forecast of the Asia Pacific Climate Center is to be believed, Odisha is predicted to record above-normal rainfall during the last fortnight in September and the whole of October. Its deterministic model predicts rainfall in October will be 1.2mm/day above the normal rainfall during the month in Odisha.