September month's first low pressure is just 42 hours away. The system will first develop in the north of the Bay of Bengal. But will drift towards the south to become a well-marked area near the south Odisha coast, only to move into Andhra Pradesh (Srikakakulam) on September 7.
As a consequence to the development of the system, Odisha will record moderate to heavy rains across the state for nearly 35 hours - from morning hours of Sept 6 to the evening hours on Sept 7. As per the model prediction, the State is going to record around 3-4mm/hr.
However, the forecast shows some places, including Bhubaneswar, in Khordha and Puri districts, will be going to record very heavy rainfall in the range of 5-6mm/hr on Sept 7. The model forecasts suggest the hours of pounding rains at around 8 am -12 pm.
Dry Days
As the weather system, after passing through Andhra Pradesh, moves towards western India, dry weather will prevail in Odisha on September 8. But the dry hours will have a shorter life span, thanks to another low pressure area developing over the north Andaman seas on September 9.
In association with the system, Odisha will see the resumption of rains from Sept 9. The precipitation activity is predicted to continue on Sept 10 (Ganesh Puja Day). However, there will be sporadic rainfall, which will also not be covering the whole of Odisha.
Check Rainfall Places on Ganesh Puja Day
Model forecasts show thundershowers from the very early morning hours on Sept 10 in the districts of Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Bhadrak, Kendrapada, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj, Deogarh, Angul, Dhenkanal, Sambalpur, Balangir and Ganjam. Few places in Kandhamal and Nayagarh are also predicted to record thundershowers on the day.
Almost all the districts are predicted to record light to moderate intermittent rainfall from around the morning hours (9 am onwards) on the festival day.
Model Unanimity
Weather models are unanimous over the movement and intensity of the second low pressure system that is set to form on and around September 9-10. The system is predicted to develop over the east-central Bay of Bengal.
Both reputed models, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF, agree on the system progressing towards the northwest Bay of Bengal and will be growing up to become a shallow depression. The models show the system will pass through north Odisha and West Bengal.
The ECMWF predicts heavy rains in West Bengal, whereas moderate rains in Odisha.
The Indian Model Forecast
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology's CGEPS -IGPP (Coupled/climate forecast system based Grand Ensemble Prediction System -cum- improved Genesis Potential Parameters) model assigns a high probability to the system moving towards West Bengal.
As per IITM's CGEPS-IGPP, the well-marked low pressure area that is about to form on September 6, is also predicted to pass through the states of north Odisha- West Bengal.