Even as the skies in Odisha have opened up for 72 hours of heavy downpour, the Sun will shine on the State's horizon by mid-day on Wednesday in many parts of the State. However, heavy rains seem all set to return to the State after over 140 hours, when a well-marked low pressure will cross the coasts of Odisha - West Bengal.
As per the latest model forecast by lead Met agencies like NCEP-GFS, ECMWF and IITM-MME, a low pressure area will develop in the northeast Bay of Bengal, very close to Myanmar coasts, on and around Sept 19. The system is predicted to chart its way towards the west (and little north) and head towards the coasts of Odisha - West Bengal.
The model forecasts predict that the system will cross between Balasore - Medinipur in the morning hours on September 20.
LOPAR Impact
A glance at the models reveals that the fresh low pressure area that is to take shape on Sept 19 will not cast any big impact on Odisha. The model data shows the system is likely to cross over the land between Balasore and Digha on Sept 20 and will move towards Jharkhand.
Moreover, the system will not develop into a depression. As of now, models shows the system is likely to grow up to a well-marked low pressure area.
Since the system is likely to move over Balasore towards Jharkhand, the districts of Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar and Bhadrak may record very heavy rainfall on the coming Monday (Sept 20). As per the forecast, the districts will record rainfall in the range of 3-4mm per hour, whereas the rest of the coastal districts and other north interior districts are predicted to record a total rainfall in the range of 10mm in 6 hours or nearly 2 mm per hour.
And the rains in Odisha will continue for around 25-30 hours only. Sun is going to shine in Odisha skies from September 22.
Two More LOPARS Likely
Based on the current sea conditions, the bay is likely to give birth to two fresh low pressure systems during the last week of September. As per the predictions, a low pressure area will develop very close to the north Andhra Pradesh coasts. This system will bring rains for Odisha on Sept 27 and 28.
Another fresh low pressure area will develop in the central-east Bay of Bengal on Sept 28. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in Odisha on Sept 29-30.
History Of September Rainfall In Odisha
As per the data available with IMD, till Sept 14, Odisha has recorded 252.9mm rainfall, which is double the normal rainfall in Sept (126.6mm). It needs mentioning here that the State had recorded one of the wettest September in history in the year 2020.
However, the consecutive wettest September in Odisha is no record. The year 1993 and 1994 had seen wettest Septembers consecutively in Odisha.
Consider the chronology below.
- 1922 ---- 370mm
- 1945 ---- 383.7mm
- 1952 ---- 319mm
- 1954 ---- 366mm
- 1955 ---- 354mm
- 1956 ---- 324mm
- 1958 ---- 354mm
- 1961 ---- 404mm
- 1963 ---- 310 mm
- 1972 ---- 326.7mm
- 1980 ---- 330.5mm
- 1985 ---- 332.1mm
- 1993 ---- 307.2mm
- 1994 ---- 322.9mm
- 2007 ---- 408.7mm
- 2011 ---- 420mm (Odisha had recorded one of the worst floods in history)
- 2014 ---- 304.5mm
- 2018 ---- 286.3mm
- 2020 --- 339.9mm