Even as Odisha will receive only a chequered heavy rainfall due to the current cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal, and which will shift to West Bengal by the early morning hours of Monday (Sept 20), the model predictions, however, forecast of 'qayamat ki baaris' (extremely heavy rainfall) lashing the State from Sept 26-30.
The latest met models from the tropical weather prediction institutes like IITM-MME, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF make a big forecast. The forecast spells rain south and north in Odisha from the next Sunday. Two weather systems will form very close to Myanmar, which are remnants from a west pacific system, in a span of 72 hours. And the systems will wreck rain havoc in the State, the prediction says.
Rain Forecast For Next 48-Hrs
In consequent to the presence of a cyclonic circulation (see the main image) over the northwest Bay of Bengal, very close to north Odisha-West Bengal, Odisha will record very heavy to moderate rainfall for the next 24 hours. Clouds are likely to leave the State by tomorrow evening (7pm).
Though the sky remains overcast today, drizzle to commence again in the State from around 9-10 pm, and the intensity of the rainfall may grow tonight. Below are the places that are predicted to receive very heavy rainfall.
- Some places in Sambalpur, Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sonepur, Boudh, Angul, Dhenkanal and parts of Cuttack district are going to record very heavy rainfall, accompanied by moderate lightning, from midnight today.
- By the 2:30 hrs tonight, rains predicted for districts of Puri, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Jagatsingpur, Kendrapada, Sundargarh, Balangir etc.
- Heavy rainfall may sweep the districts of Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar during the same hours till early morning.
- Light rain will continue in majority of districts till mid-day on Monday.
- Rains to take a break from the State from the evening hours tomorrow.
There is a forecast of scanty rainfall in the State on Tuesday and Wednesday. And Sun god to shine on the Odisha sky from Tuesday.
Qayamat Ki Baaris!
The spectre of extremely heavy to very heavy rainfall will be swamping the State from September 26 - 29. Model forecast by leading weather agencies predicts two back-to-back low pressure systems (LPS) in a span of 72 hours.
If the model forecasts are to be believed, then Odisha will be recording rains south and north during the last 120 hours of September month.
Spell One
While all models agree on the formation of low pressure on around Sept 26, there is a divergence marked in the prediction of the system's track.
- Bothe ECMWF and GFS agree on the fact that remnants of a system from the west pacific will merge in the bay, and later gather steam to develop into a low pressure area.
- NCEP-GFS predict the low pressure system to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh coasts.
- ECMWF and IITM-MME predict the weather system moving towards Odisha coast.
- While NCEP-GFS predict nearly 5mm/hour rainfall in the coastal districts of Odisha on Sept 26, ECMWF forecast around 8mm rainfall per hour.
- Very Heavy rain is predicted from the evening of coming Sunday.
Districts, where the civic bodies need to stay on alert mode, are given below:
- Cuttack
- Khordha, including Bhubaneswar.
- Puri
- Jagatsinghpur
- Kendrapada
- Angul
- Dhenkanal
- Very heavy midnight rain in the districts of Balangir, Sambalpur, Sonepur, Kandhamal, Boudh etc.
- The rest of the districts in the State are predicted to record around 2-3mm rainfall per hour.
Spell Two
The second low pressure is predicted to form in the northern head of the Bay of Bengal, very close to the Odisha-WB coast. All models have a rare unanimity. The forecast is the system will head towards the north Odisha coasts.
Extremely heavy rainfall in the range of 20-30mm per hour in the districts of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Dhenkanal, Angul, Cuttack etc.
Bhubaneswar (Khordha district) and Nayagarh are predicted to record very heavy rainfall in the range of 6-8 mm per hour in the morning hours on Sept 30.
Action Time
Today in the afternoon hours, the Capital City recorded around 7mm rain. The flood points and waterlogging spots in the smart city were Pani' - 'Pani'. If the forecast is to be believed, and when the Smart City is predicted to record around 7mm/per hour for nearly 2-3 hrs, then the level of chaos on City roads could well be imagined.
The bottom line is the BMC need to prepare a contingency disaster plan in advance to deal with the emerging urban flooding in the Capital city owing to incessant downpour. Because deja vu is not desirable.