‘Depression to move across Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh; will lead to monsoon current enhancement over BoB’

The Depression over the Eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining south Konkan coast moved slowly eastward with a speed of 6 kmph today over the same region close to the south Konkan coast, about 30 km north-northwest of Ratnagiri and 70 km south of Dapoli.  It is likely to continue to move nearly eastwards and cross the south Konkan coast between Ratnagiri and Dapoli as a depression by noon of today, the 24th May 2025.

As the system is moving slowly and interacting with the land surface, due to its proximity to the coast, it is unlikely to intensify further, informed the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

With a supportive, favourable environment like low to moderate mid-level vertical wind shear, a strong surge in advancing monsoon current, and both poleward and equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperature (30-32°C), the system intensified into a depression over the east-central Arabian Sea. The outflow would support upper-level divergence. 

Why The System Did Not Intensify?

In contrast to various predictions by models in the past about its north-northwest movement, the system is moving eastwards. It is attributed to the fact that the system did not intensify and thus vertically extended up to mid-tropospheric levels. The system is being steered eastwards under the influence of westerly winds in the lower and middle tropospheric levels, informed IMD.

Depression Supporting Monsoon Advancement

The composite wind analysis of various levels also indicates a westerly trough passing to the north of the system area. As a result of all these, the depression is supporting the advance of monsoon over the south peninsular India. It would also support the advance of monsoon over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and more parts of north peninsular India and adjoining central India during the next 3 to 5 days. 

Over the Bay of Bengal, the conditions are favourable for development of low pressure area with warm sea surface temperature (30-32°C), favourable Madden Julian Oscillation (phase 4&5 during next 7 days), strong westerly wind anomaly (5-7 mps) over the south Bay of Bengal and low to moderate vertical wind shear over north and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. 

Some of the models are suggesting that, after landfall, the existing depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea would move across Maharashtra, Telangana & Andhra Pradesh and emerge into westcentral & northwest Bay of Bengal around May 27. It would lead to the formation of low pressure area over the same region. Gradually, it is predicted to move north northwestwards and may lead to the enhancement of the monsoon current over the Bay of Bengal.