Moving at around 11 km/hr, the depression at around 6 pm today is seen following a linear path. In just an hour from now, the system will intensify into a cyclonic storm.
Cyclone Gulab Live Updates: Landfall Near Singupuram In AP; Rains Tonight At Bhubaneswar-Cuttack, Landslides Likely In Koraput
Though cyclonic systems in the Bay of Bengal mostly take either a west or northwest track, as the system's atmospheric pressure in not showing any drastic change, the present cyclonic system will move in the west direction even after landfall on Sunday.
Given its westward track, while the system will take a direct hit at Andhra Pradesh Coasts (Singupuram in Srikakulam district) during the evening hours (around 6-6:30 pm) on Sunday, the weather system post-landfall will pass over the south Odisha district of Koraput. And the district is likely to bear the brunt of the first cyclonic storm in BoB this monsoon.
As per the model predictions, the cyclonic storm is likely to pass over the Amadalavalasa town of Andhra Pradesh in the Srikakulam district. And will then straight away pass through the Koraput and Rayagada districts as a deep depression.
Odisha Impact
Considering the path of the cyclone, and its intensity, the three districts of Rayagada, Malkangiri and Koraput are going to record very heavy rainfall tonight. Gunpur (Rayagada) is predicted to record over 3mm per hour.
Even as bands of rain-bearing clouds were being seen over north Andhra Pradesh (see the main image), Odisha will receive the first cyclonic rainfall from around 10 pm tonight. When rainfall in the range of 3-4mm/hr will lash the temple town of Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Berhampur, Chattrapur etc will record rainfall in the range of 2-3 mm/hr.
From midnight, the action will shift completely to the districts like Koraput, Rayagada and Gajapati. The rainfall in the districts is predicted to remain in the range of 2-3mm/hr.
Early morning heavy rainfall (4-6mm/hr) is forecast for few places in Bhadrak, Kendrapada and Ganjam districts. Light to moderate rainfall is predicted for Odisha during the morning hours of Sunday (9 am). Rain is likely in all districts in the State, except Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj and the majority of places in Sundargarh. Light to moderate rainfall will continue in almost 27 districts till around 5 pm in the evening.
At around 10 pm on Sept 26, Koraput and Rayagada will record rainfall in the range of 3mm/hr. The heavy rainfall is predicted to continue in the districts till around 9 am on Monday (Sept 27). Though rainfall is predicted in other coastal districts like Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Cuttack etc on Monday morning, it will be light rainfall (1-3mm/hr).
WIND SPEED: A gusting wind speed of over 40km/hr will be first felt in the early morning hours of Sunday in the Kendrapada district. Later, the wind speed is set to sweep Puri shores at around 6-7 am.
Around midday, Puri shores are likely to record a gusting wind speed of 50km/hr. However, the wind speed will drop to below 40 km/hr by Sunday evening. Gopalpur sea is predicted to record gusting wind speed of 50km/hr during the evening hours.
Disaster Impact On Odisha
As heavy rain is predicted to continue for over 10 hours in Koraput and Rayagada districts, there is every likelihood of landslides, especially in the Koraput district. Koraput and Malkangiri are prone to landslides in case of heavy rains.
No flood forecast in the Vansadhara river, even as Gunupur and Kashipur are likely to record heavy rainfall.
Land Fall Place
As per the model observations, the cyclone will be moving over to the areas of Srikakulam, Koraput, etc, where the atmospheric pressure is very high (around 1010 hPa), compared to 1002 hPa in the coastal areas of Odisha.
The forecast is Singupuram in Andhra Pradesh will be recording rainfall in the range of over 10mm/hr. during the landfall time. The town will also bear the brunt of high-speed wind of around 66 km/hr.