Is India out of WTC final? Last hope, key scenarios explained ahead of BGT Test 5

India's World Test Championship hopes diminish after an 184-run loss to Australia at Melbourne. South Africa leads the standings, while India's PCT drops, complicating their path to the final.

Is India out of WTC final? Last hope, key scenarios explained ahead of BGT Test 5

Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli

time

India's hopes of reaching the World Test Championship (WTC) final have taken a hit following an 184-run defeat to Australia in the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The loss not only exposed a crumbling Indian batting order but also dropped India's points percentage (PCT) in the ICC’s official WTC Table from 55.89 to 52.78, placing them third in the standings.

Current scenario

South Africa is at the top of the standings with 66.67 percentage points and has already secured a spot in the WTC final at Lord's next June. Australia currently stands second at 61.46 and its position allows it to eliminate India (at 52.78) from the second spot contention by either drawing or winning the final Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) Test in Sydney, starting tomorrow.

How can India qualify for the WTC 2025 final?

For India to reach the World Test Championship final, the Rohit Sharma-led side needs to win the final Test and hope for favorable results in Sri Lanka.

As per current scenarios, for India to even have a chance at the WTC final, they must win the Sydney Test to level the Border-Gavaskar series. Even then, India's highest possible winning percentage will be 55.26, which is still less than Australia's current 61.45. As such, Team India's qualification will also depend on the Aussies failing to win any of their upcoming matches in Sri Lanka.

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What if Australia wins the final BGT test?

If Australia wins in Sydney, they will clinch the Border-Gavaskar Trophy with a 3-1 margin and increase their PCT to 63.73, effectively eliminating India from WTC 2025 finals. The Aussies will reach the WTC finals irrespective of their test match results against Sri Lanka.

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Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli’s retirement concerns

In the meantime, intense criticism of veteran players, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma have surged following their poor show with the bat in the last test. Former Indian head coach Ravi Shastri even issued a statement indirectly hinting at the skipper’s possible imminent retirement.

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