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A massive asteroid named 2024 YR4, first detected in December 2024, has drawn global attention as scientists track its path toward a potential Earth collision in December 2032. Further, initial NASA projections had flagged a 3.1% chance of impact, but updated data now lowered this risk to 0.28% (1 in 357 odds).
Seven Indian states including Odisha, Maharashtra, Northern Telangana, Southern Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal were identified as possible impact zones, with Mumbai and Kolkata at heightened risk.
The Asteroid Threat
2024 YR4 measures 177 feet (54 meters) in diameter, large enough to flatten a major city. Traveling at speeds up to 64,373 km/h, its impact could release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, over 500 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. A direct land strike might trigger fires and shockwaves, while an ocean hit could cause tsunamis.
Risk Assessment
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and global observatories are closely monitoring the asteroid. “Probabilities often spike before dropping as data improves,” said Bruce Betts of the Planetary Society. The asteroid currently holds a Torino Scale rating of 3/10, indicating “localized destruction” risk but no global catastrophe. A 0.3% chance of a moon collision also remains.
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Potential Impact
If 2024 YR4 enters Earth’s atmosphere, simulations suggest it could explode midair (an airburst) or create a crater. “This is at most dangerous for a city,” said ESA’s Richard Moissl, comparing it to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor that injured 1,500 people.
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Global Backup Response
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and UN-backed groups are coordinating defence strategies. NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully deflected an asteroid, offers hope. Backup plans include gravity tractors or nuclear deflection. By March 2025, improved data could reduce risks further.
