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Asteroid 2024 YR4, a 177-foot space rock detected in December 2024, initially raised concerns with a 3.1% chance of Earth impact in 2032. Early NASA projections flagged seven Indian states including Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Northern Telangana, and Southern Madhya Pradesh as potential risk zones.
Travelling at 64,373 km/h, its collision could have released energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, over 500 times stronger than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. A direct hit threatened city-level devastation, fires, or tsunamis if it struck oceans. Further, recent asteroid impacts underscore the catastrophic potential of such events.
Risks From Past Event Data
In 2013, the Chelyabinsk meteor (17 meters wide) exploded over Russia with 470 kilotons of force. The explosion created a bright flash of light, which was briefly brighter than the Sun, and produced a large shockwave that travelled through the atmosphere, causing extensive damage to buildings in the region, shattering windows and collapsing structures.
The debris from broken glass and other materials injured around 1,500 people. Most of the injuries were minor cuts and bruises, but some people suffered more serious injuries.
Smaller events, like the 2018 Bering Sea asteroid (173 kilotons) and the 2021 Kamchatka blast (10 kilotons), caused no casualties due to remote locations.
By comparison, 2024 YR4’s speculated 8-megaton impact could dwarf these incidents, amplifying fears for densely populated regions like Odisha.
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No Threat, Confirms NASA
As per the latest update, NASA ruled out any risk of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth. Frequent observations downgraded its threat from Torino Scale Level 3 (“meriting attention”) to Level 0 (“no hazard”).
Initial miscalculations, caused by limited early data, had predicted the impact odds at 1 in 32. However, revised tracking by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory slashed probabilities to 1 in 20,000, almost negligible.
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Safe Passage Assured
The asteroid 2024 YR4 should now safely pass Earth in 2032 at a distance of 167,000 miles, over two-thirds of the Moon’s orbit. Additionally, NASA confirmed that its monitoring systems effectively neutralized false alarms, highlighting advancements in planetary defence.
