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NASA has tripled the collision odds of asteroid named 2024 YR4, a 177-foot (54-meter) space rock, to 3.1% (1 in 32 odds). First discovered by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory in December 2024, the asteroid is classified as a “city-killer,” meaning it could release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, over 500 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb and is on a trajectory to hit Earth in 2032.
A report from AFP, cited Bruce Betts of the Planetary Society, noting probabilities often spike before plummeting to zero as data improves. However, the asteroid’s Torino Scale rating of 3/10 reflects localised destruction risk, if not a global catastrophe.
What would happen if 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
If 2024 YR4 strikes, it could flatten a major city. A New York Times simulation showed that it might explode midair (an airburst) or create a crater, depending on composition and size.
Further, its speed is expected to be up to 64,373 km/h (40,000 mph), which amplifies damage potential, with a direct ocean hit possibly triggering tsunamis, while land impacts risk fires and shockwaves.
However, 96.9% odds still favour a miss with a 0.3% chance of it hitting the moon. “This is at most dangerous for a city,” stressed ESA’s Richard Moissl, comparing it to 2013’s Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1,500 people.
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Global Monitoring Efforts and Risk Mitigation
Astronomers worldwide are tracking YR4 using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and ground observatories. By March 2025, clearer data may reduce risk estimates and may even bring it to near-zero levels.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and UN-backed groups are coordinating responses. Moreover, NASA’s 2022 DART mission proved asteroids can be deflected and strategies like gravity tractors or nuclear options remain backups.
