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The recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India, following the tragic Pahalgam terrorist attack that claimed 26 lives, has significantly escalated tensions between India and Pakistan.
In response, there is speculation that Pakistan might consider withdrawing from the 1972 Shimla Agreement. Such a move could have profound implications for regional stability, diplomatic relations, and international legal frameworks.
Background of Shimla Pact: The Shimla Agreement was signed on 2nd July 1972 after the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh.
Points of the Shimla Pact:
1. Peaceful Settlement: All disputes, including Kashmi,r to be resolved peacefully, through bilateral talks – no third-party interference.
2. Respect for LOC: The LOC in Jammu & Kashmir (as it stood after the 1971 war) would be respected by both sides – no attempts to alter it unilaterally.
3. No use of force: Committed to avoiding the use of threat or force in future conflicts.
4. Troop Withdrawal: Armed forces to withdraw to pre-December 3, 1971 positions, except in Kashmir.
5. Return of POWs: India agreed to return over 90K Pakistani prisoners of war.
6. Withdrawal from captured areas: India returned captured territories to Pakistan as a gesture of peace.
7. Future of Ties: Both nations pledged to normalize relations step by step, including trade, diplomatic ties, etc.
8. Normalization of Relations: Agreed to restore diplomatic, trade, and cultural ties.
9. Mutual Respect: Future ties to be based on sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference.
10. Transition to Peace: The agreement is intended as a step toward a long-term, peaceful relationship.
Potential Implications of Pakistan Withdrawing from the Shimla Pact
If Pakistan withdraws from the Shimla Agreement following India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—both of which are foundational frameworks for Indo-Pak relations—it could trigger a diplomatic, legal, and security crisis.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the possible consequences:
1. Diplomatic and Legal Repercussions:
Erosion of Bilateral Framework: The Shimla Agreement serves as the cornerstone for India-Pakistan diplomatic engagements. Its revocation could dismantle the existing bilateral dispute resolution mechanism, potentially leading to increased internationalization of the Kashmir issue.
2. Security and Military Tensions
Increased Border Hostilities: Without the Shimla Agreement's commitment to peaceful resolution, there could be a rise in cross-border skirmishes and military confrontations along the Line of Control.
Risk of Escalation: The absence of a diplomatic framework increases the risk of misunderstandings and rapid escalation, potentially leading to larger conflicts between the two nuclear-armed nations.
3. Impact on Water Security
Water Resource Management: The suspension of the IWT and potential withdrawal from the Shimla Agreement could disrupt cooperative water management, affecting agriculture and livelihoods, especially in Pakistan's Punjab region.
The potential withdrawal from the Shimla Agreement by Pakistan could destroy Pakistan only, destabilising the already fragile relationship between the two countries. It may also help India occupy the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). Besides, the dwindling economy of Pakistan will crash like playing cards, and subsequently the entire country.
