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The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) formal exit from the INDIA bloc has deepened fissures within the opposition camp, just months ahead of the crucial Bihar Assembly elections scheduled in 2025.
While AAP holds no political stake in Bihar, its departure reflects deeper structural cracks within the INDIA bloc, raising concerns over coordination, trust, and seat-sharing.
A Fractured Front!
The INDIA bloc, which had united to challenge the BJP-led NDA in the 2024 general elections, won 234 seats nationwide. In Bihar, the bloc had a strong showing with the RJD, Congress, and Left parties forming the core.
RJD: 4 Lok Sabha seats in 2024
Congress: 3 seats
Left Parties (CPI, CPI-M, CPI-ML): 2 seats combined
In contrast, the NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), managed to secure 12 of 40 seats- down from 39 in 2019.
Why AAP’s Exit Matters for Bihar
Though not a player in Bihar, AAP’s withdrawal sends a signal to regional parties like RJD and JD(U) about the fragility of opposition unity. With the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections looming, alliance management will be critical:
- Seat-sharing tensions could flare between Congress and RJD, especially after the Congress’s better-than-expected 2024 performance.
- The Left parties, emboldened by their presence, may also push for a bigger pie.
- AAP’s move could inspire other regional players to assert independence or question Congress’s leadership role within the alliance.
2025: Bihar’s Game of Numbers
The 2020 Bihar Assembly results:
• NDA (BJP + JD-U + allies): 125 seats (Majority)
• Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led): 110 seats
• RJD: 75
• Congress: 19
• Left: 16
To unseat the NDA, the INDIA bloc needs to hold the coalition tightly and present a credible CM face. RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav is expected to lead the charge again, but internal tensions is sure to weaken voters’ confidence and help the Narendra Modi-led BJP and its alliance parties to form the government again in Bihar.
AAP’s exit may be symbolic in Bihar, but it reveals a larger fragility within INDIA bloc. For Tejashwi and allies, the message is clear- build trust now, or risk division later as BJP is already sharpening its strategy for a comeback.
