With the monsoon going to grow weak over the Andaman seas and Bay of Bengal from Sept 28, and southwest monsoon withdrawal process setting in on Myanmar from Sept 27, no more fresh low pressure areas around Myanmar or Andaman seas or over Central bay is likely till October 8.
However, a depression is predicted to cross the land around the Srikakulam district in Andhra Pradesh in the night hours on September 26. The impact of the system will not be going too big over Odisha. Post this system, leading weather models show non-formation of any other system till the end of the first week of October.
As a consequence, Odisha is not going to receive any excess rainfall in the last week of September and the first week of October. The NCEP rain charts predict Odisha recording rainfall in the range of 25mm to 80mm during the 14-day period.
The sudden change in the conditions in the Bay of Bengal will not only put a full stop to the overactive September but it will also hasten the withdrawal of monsoon from northwest India. The models indicate withdrawal of monsoon from Rajasthan on and around October 1.
Tracking Depression
As per the model of INCOIS (Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services), a low pressure area will form very close to the Myanmar coast in the next 30-hours. The system will intensify into a depression in the subsequent 24 hours and move towards north Andhra Pradesh - south Odisha coasts.
As per the models of INCOIS, IITM-MME and ECMWF, the intensified system will cross the Andhra Pradesh coasts (around Srikakulam district) in the nights hours on Sept 26. The system is predicted to move towards the western states of India, after landfall, the models observe.
Odisha Impact
Even as the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh will be witnessing a wind speed of around 50 km/hr during the night hours on September 26 and rainfall in the range of 15-20 mm per hour, the impact of the system in Odisha will not be of concerning nature.
The places in southern coastal districts in Odisha like Berhampur, Chhatrapur, Ganjam etc will record very heavy rainfall from afternoon hours on Sept 26.
As per the forecast, the districts of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, many places in Bhadrak will record moderate to heavy rainfall on Sept 26. During evening hours, the places may record rainfall of up to 6mm per hour.
- Twin City Impact
- The forecast details show rainfall in the range of 5mm/hr in the afternoon hours in Bhubaneswar on coming Sunday.
- The commercial city Cuttack is predicted to record rainfall in the range of 4mm/hr during the afternoon-evening hours on Sept 26.
- Under the impact of the system, both cities will record rainfall in the range of 3-4mm/hr in the morning hours on Monday (September 27)
Monsoon On Last Legs?
As weather models predict monsoon growing weak in Andaman seas and adjoining Bay of Bengal, there is very unlikely of any weather system developing in the region that has the potential to grow up to depression or cyclone, till the end of the first week of the October.
This change in weather parameters will spare Odisha from the spectre of depression induced heavy to very heavy rainfall till the end of first week of October.
However, the models indicate cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal head (north BoB), and the weather development will bring widespread rainfall in West Bengal and Odisha during October 3 -5. No heavy rainfall is predicted for Odisha.
If the models are to be believed, the withdrawal process of South West Monsoon will commence in India from October 1.
And the trends of withdrawal over the years suggest the SW Monsoon making an exit in the State from around Oct 14.