Last year January was a bit warmer. February, March and April then breathed fire. January this year has not seen a warmer clime to date in the country, including Odisha. Does this mean the Summer rise will be late and less harsh in 2022?
Because the weather constant that had undergone a change this year is the setting on of the La Nina conditions. As per the latest ENSO predictions by APEC Climate Centre, weak La Nina conditions will remain till April 2022.
"A La Niña ALERT is predicted for the period between February - July 2022," predicts the APCC ENSO alert.
The apex weather agency then elaborated that during December 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be -1.1℃ and gradually increase to 0.1℃ through the forecast period (Feb-July).
Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests an around 74 percent chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for February – April 2022, which then gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant (~58%) during May - July 2022, added the release.
The forecast of ENSO neutral conditions till July holds out an olive branch for the timely arrival of monsoon in India, including Odisha.
The First Summer Forecast
Against the backdrop of the above atmospheric conditions, the APCC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre) has released the summer outlook for India.
A glance at the detailed summer outlook shows that except Bihar, there is a 40-50 percent probability of recording above normal temperature by other states during the period of February to April 2022.
The APCC outlook further predicts an equal probability of recording below the normal temperature in states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha during the months of May - July 2022.
In sum, the first summer outlook for India shows there is no respite from the harsh summer in 2022.
The Worry Factor For Odisha
In its first summer outlook, the APCC has dropped a bothering forecast for Odisha.
It said, "Strongly enhanced probability for above-normal temperatures is predicted for the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal."
A hotter Bay of Bengal in the summer months doesn't augur well for the State, as hotter sea means highly favourable for brewing severe cyclonic storms.
Since 2019, Odisha has been seemingly dating cyclonic storms in the month of May. The cyclonic May in Odisha started from ESCS Fani in 2019, then Super cyclone Amphan in May 2020 and VSCS Yaas in May 2021.
The APCC in its 2021 forecast had predicted a hotter Bay of Bengal in the summer months. The result was VSCS Yaas took birth in May 2021.
Odisha Summer Forecast: At Sub State Level
February 2022: If one goes by the probabilistic multimodal ensemble long-range forecast by the APCC, in February, the coastal districts of Puri, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and Jajpur carry a nearly 50 per cent probability of recording a mean surface temperature that will be above the normal temperature.
Simply put, February 2022 will be warmer in coastal districts spanning from Puri to Bhadrak. Last year, the Capital City had been the hottest city in the country on Feb 26, 2021.
However, the rest of districts are predicted to record either below normal or normal temperature.
March 2022: As per the MME probabilistic forecast, the whole of Odisha will record above normal temperature in March.
But the coastal districts of Puri, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and Jajpur exhibit an 80 percent probability of recording a hotter March.
April 2022: The State is predicted to record hotter April this year. When the probability of recording above normal temperature for the districts other than coastal has been over 50 percent, it's a high of 70 percent probability for the districts of Puri, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Dhenknal, Angul, Keonjhar, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Bhadrak and Jajpur.
The same districts are predicted to record above-normal rainfall in the month of April, which means April will see more norwesters.
May 2022: The districts from Angul, Dhenkanal, Keonjhar, Nayagarh, Cuttack, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada,Bhadrak, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, and Puri carry a high probability of 60-70 percent to record a hotter May.
However, the MME probabilistic forecast predicts a cooler and rainy June for Odisha indicating the timely arrival of the Monsoon.
India Forecast: At Subnational Level
February 2022: While there is over 50 percent probability of the southern coastal states in the country recording above normal temperature in Feb, the northern, north-western, central and eastern states carry a high probability of recording below normal temperature. This shows Feb will be cooler in UP, MP, Bihar, WB, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana.
March 2022: Except for eastern UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, the whole of the country will record a hotter March this year. The APCC MME probabilistic forecast predicts above normal temperature.
April 2022: The month will see all states recording above normal temperature in India, except Bihar.
May 2022: Except Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern UP, all other states in the country will record a hotter May this year. The probability ranges from 40 to 60 percent.