In the evening hours today (around 8 pm), satellite images show some clouds over the South Bay of Bengal. The cloud remnants from the south China sea are on their way to the north Andaman sea and northeast BoB zooms on the latest satellite image (8:15 pm). (see the main image).
As per the latest bulletin of IMD, a low pressure area will form over the north Andaman sea and its adjoining areas in the next 36 hours (that means by Monday night). It further states that the system will become more marked and move towards Andhra Pradesh - Odisha coast during the subsequent 4-5 days (by Oct 15) - which means by Durga Puja.
Tracking Low Pressure
One model seems to be in agreement with the IMD. As per Australia Weather Department, a low will take shape over the northern Andaman sea and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal by around midnight on October 11.
And the agreement seems to end there itself. Because, the ACCESS-G3 model of Australia forecasts the formation of a more marked low pressure over the central BoB, only by Thursday (Oct 14) morning. The model predicts the low pressure crossing the land in Andhra Pradesh on Oct 16.
NCEP - GFS
As per the top US met model, a low pressure (fuelled by South China sea remnants) will form in the north Andaman sea on Oct 16. Moving in a northwest direction, the system will become well marked by Oct 17 morning hours. The US model predicts the system to intensify into a depression by the night hours of the coming Sunday.
But as the system crosses the land on and around Oct 18, it will cross as a low-pressure area only. The model predicts the system to cross between Puri and Jagatsinghpur, and will thus bring heavy rains in Odisha.
The model predicts very heavy rainfall in the districts of Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Keonjhar, Bhadrak, Angul, Dhenkanal etc, The range of the rainfall is predicted at 8-16 mm per hour. The rest of the districts will be recording rain in the range of 2-4mm/hr.
As per the model prediction, Cuttack and Bhubaneswar are unlikely to record very heavy rain.
ECMWF And IMD
As per ECMWF, the low pressure will cross the land over Odisha. Its model predicts so with an 80 per cent probability that the system is set to cross the land around Jagatsinghpur in Odisha on Oct 18.
The IMD-GFS model today has also predicted the system crossing the land around Jagatsinghpur on Oct 18-19. The model predicts heavy rain in Ganjam district, including Berhampur, on Oct 18.
No Rainfall In Durga Puja
If all the models - IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF - are to be believed, Odisha is not going to witness a rainy Durga Puja this year. All rainfall activities in the State will start from Oct 16 onwards.
And the big unanimity observed is, all have downgraded the cyclone risk and threat to any of the Indian states in October.
Significant here is, the MJO (Madden Jullian Oscillation), a convective phenomenon, is not strong over the Indian ocean, unlike in September. The phenomenon is strong over the maritime continent (Southeast Asian countries) now, which is evidenced by two cyclonic storms (Lionrock and Maring)
The predictions show the MJO going weak over the maritime continent (south china sea region) from Oct 25 - a good omen for the coastal states in India.