With the wind shear over the whole of Odisha landmass shooting up to touch over 27 knots, the Cyclone Jawad will seemingly be getting pushed more to the northeastwards. Since the system needs a wind shear of below 25 knots, the conditions look unfavourable for Cyclone Jawad to intrude into Odisha's Puri coast.
Live Updates: 'Jawad' Likely To Weaken By The Time It Reaches Puri Coast
As per the latest model data release by NCEP, ACCESS-G3 and JTWC, the cyclonic storm Jawad will move at a kissing distance ( nearly 35 km away) from the coast of Puri on Sunday afternoon, only to head towards the South 24 Parganas of West Bengal. Cyclone Jawad will weaken into a deep depression near the Puri coast.
The latest INCOIS model suggests that Cyclone Jawad will move parallel to Jagatsinghpur -Kendrapada coast as a Deep Depression at a distance of around 10-14km only. Tracking northeast, Cyclone Jawad will make landfall in South 24 Parganas in West Bengal as a low pressure system on Monday night and further move into Bangladesh.
The model forecast chart shows that Cyclone Jawad will be charting a northward journey from the morning hours tomorrow, and by evening hours will be taking a northeast turn.
As per model analysis, the cyclonic system will move northwards from tomorrow early morning hours, and a northeast curve by evening will take it out of the bounds of the Odisha coast.
The Cyclone Jawad will move parallel to Puri during the afternoon to evening hours on December 5. At around the same hour, the system will weaken due to the high wind shear region to the west of the system, the model data analysis reveals.
In the given backdrop, how will it impact Odisha?
- Tonight Ganjam and Gajapati will record 3-4mm rainfall per hour. (see the main image)
- Heavy rain to lash Ganjam, including Bramhapur, from the early morning hours of December 4. The rainfall will be 6-7mm/hr.
- Khordha, Puri, Cuttack, Bhadrak, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada will record continuous rainfall from 2 am onwards on December 4.
- Morning hours on December 4, Cuttack city will record heavy rain in the range of 4-5mm/hr.
- Heavy rain in Bhadrak and adjoining places around the same hour.
- Heavy rain in Dhenkanal and Angul during the morning hours of 9-10 am on December 4.
- 9-10mm per hour rain in Gajapati district during the evening hours on December 4.
- Around the same hour, heavy rain will be lashing the Puri district. The rainfall will be in the range of 7-10mm/hr.
- During the night hours of 10 pm on Dec 4, Ganjam district, including silk city Bramhapur, will witness very heavy rainfall of 9-14mm/hr.
- During midnight hours on Dec 4, very heavy rains to lash the districts of Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada.
- Sunday morning hours extremely heavy rain to lash the Ganjam district, including Bramhapur town. The rainfall will be in the range of 10mm/hr.
- No let-up in rains in Puri district.
Capital Impact
- Under the impact of the Cyclone, morning hours on Dec 4 (Saturday) in the Capital City will record light rain. The range will be only 1cm.
- In the afternoon hours, rain intensity to post a rise. The City will record a 2cm rainfall.
- However, the Capital City will witness heavy rainfall at around the evening hours (7:30 pm onwards) on Dec4. The rainfall will be around a whopping 6 cm.
- The wind speed will gust at below 40kmph then.
- The City will record nearly 10-12 hrs of rainfall on Saturday.
- No respite on Sunday for the Capital denizens. A high of 5cm rainfall is likely in the Sunday morning hours. The gusting wind speed will be around 40kmph.
- However, rainfall will taper down from the Sunday afternoon hours.
Cuttack Impact
- Heavy rain in the range of 5cm during the evening hours in Silver city on December 4.
- Gusting wind speed will remain around 35 kmph.
- Sunday morning will witness very heavy sweeping Cuttack. The city will get drenched by a massive 4cm rainfall
- Rainfall to ease from afternoon onwards.
Pilgrim Town Puri
- Over 4cm of rainfall in Puri town and district during the morning hours on December 4.
- The skies will open up for heavy downpour from evening to night hours as the pilgrim town and the district will record rainfall of around 11 cm.
- The Sunday morning will record a high 7cm rainfall with gusting wind speed of around 60kmph.
- Rain and wind to calm down during the evening and night hours.