Even as the consensus on the likely cyclone (to be named cyclone Jawad) taking an aim at Odisha has broken, still a majority of the lead met models bet on the system's landfall around Gopalpur (probably to the south of Gopalpur).
Moreover, there is no consensus on the time of landfall now. While IMD-GFS model today indicated that the landfall may take place during the morning hours on December 5, INCOIS forecasts the landfall time at around the evening hours on December 4. Similarly, when ECMWF makes a forecast of early morning landfall on December 5, the GFS model predicts the landfall time at around noon hours on Dec 5.
Current Position Of 94W (Precursor Of Cyclone Jawad)
At around 5:30 hours today, the tropical disturbance (low pressure area) has entered the southeast Bay of Bengal. The system is currently 1419 km away from Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and around 1442 km away from Gopalpur in Odisha. (see the main image)
The system is moving at a speed of 35 km/hr. In the last 16-hours, the system has moved in the southwest direction. As per model forecasts, the system will henceforth mostly chart a west direction track. The prediction is by the night hours on December 2 (Thursday), the system will intensify into a depression. And in the next 24-hours, it will intensify into a cyclone - Cyclone Jawad.
Landfall Place: Odisha, AP or WB?
A consensus among the models of IMD, ECMWF, ACCESS-G3 and INCOIS is the landfall of the likely cyclone will be between Srikakulam district in Andhra Pradesh and Puri district in Odisha.
A detailed look at the data shows the landfall place, according to the above models, is very likely to the south of Gopalpur. The sea tidal wave height during the evening hours on Dec 4 along the coast of Gopalpur - Puri will be around 3 mt. Such a significant wave height is not predicted at any other coastline either in Odisha or Andhra Pradesh.
The wind speed along the coast to the south of Gopalpur is predicted to reach around 86kmph during the evening hours on December 4.
Moreover, the IMD GFS model predicts a sustained surface wind speed of around 40-50km/hour in the districts of Rayagada, Gajapati, Ganjam and the adjoining places in the districts of Kandhamal, Nayagarh and Khordha.
Based on the above data, it seems Cyclone Jawad is heading towards the south Odisha coast, and the landfall will take place likely between the evening hours of Saturday (Dec 4) to the early morning hours on Dec 5.
Will Odisha Bear The Brunt?
The lead Met models like IMD-GFS, INCOIS, ECMWF and ACCESS-G3 predict that the cyclonic system after making landfall will curve along the Odisha coastline to move into West Bengal.
As a consequence, the coastal districts of Odisha and the adjoining places in north Odisha districts will be recording a sustained wind speed of around 40kmph till December 5 (Sunday) morning.
But extremely heavy rainfall will be recorded in the districts between Gajapati to Puri.