The country's monsoon forecast is out. The Indian Meteorological Department, the official weatherman of India, has forecast normal rainfall in the June-Sept period this year in the country but with usual caveats. The top weather agency forecast has dropped alerts over probable drought-like conditions in as many as seven districts of Odisha.
As per IMD's long-range forecast for the South West Monsoon Season 2022, though Odisha as a whole is predicted to receive normal monsoon rainfall this year, the shower will mostly be uneven. Below normal rainfall is predicted for the water-starved districts like Ganjam, Nuapada, Bolangir, Sundargarh, parts of Sambalpur, Kalahandi-Rayagada and Nayagarh-Puri.
A detailed glance at the Terclie Monsoon rainfall map released by the weather agency revealed big. (See the image above )
Monsoon Mapping
While the South West Monsoon will bring in normal rainfall in Jagatsinghpur, Sonepur, Kandhamal and Angul, the probability of above-normal monsoon rainfall is predicted for the rest. Heavy rainfall is predicted for districts like Keonjhar and adjoining places in Sundargarh.
The IMD prediction map shows a high probability of above-normal rainfall in Jharkhand. And the spell of good rainfall forecast for neighbourhood places in the districts of Keonjhar and Sunadrgarh, in tandem, narrates a tale. The task seems cut out for the Odisha disaster management body. The IMD forecast hints at keeping a watch over Brahmani and Baitarani rivers, and the flood proofing of villages along the river basins seems imperative.
The SW Monsoon outlook by IMD hints at good rainfall in north Odisha, Gajapati, Malkangiri, Koraput, Cuttack, Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, Balasore and Bhadrak. (See the image above)
Quiet Mahanadi?
The IMD rainfall forecast hints probability of less than normal rainfall upstream of the Mahanadi river basin. The prediction sees no heavy rainfall along the Mahanadi downstream, though some of the districts are predicted to record a good spell of rain.
However, the IMD monsoon forecast drops a hint on likely heavy rainfall in the Ib river upstream basin this monsoon during the period of June-Sept.
Though the forecast has not specified month-wise rainfall, historical data suggests that heavy rainfall occurs in the river upstream districts in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand during the months of July and August (especially in first fortnight of the month).
Monsoon 2021
The rainfall during the monsoon season last year had been erratic. For the 6th time in the State's monsoon history, the State recorded a highly deficient rainfall in August.
The four districts of Jajpur, Bhadrak, Bolangir and Angul have borne the brunt of the deficient monsoon in 2021.
2021 IMD Prediction
Last year, the IMD Terclie map predicted below normal rainfall for the districts like Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Ganjam, Bolangir, Kalahandi, Dhenkanal, Angul and western Odisha. The agency had predicted above normal rainfall in districts like Keonjhar, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khordha, Cuttack, Kendrapada, Gajapati and Ganjam (see the image below)
The Bottomline
Given that the IMD prediction last year had broadly proven true, the forecast for the upcoming monsoon season by the agency sounds the alarm bell for the State agriculture mandarins to draw out contingency plans