With the US-based NOAA making a confident forecast (87%) of La Nina setting in this winter, is Odisha going to record early and chilly winter this year?
In the given backdrop, as per the model forecasts, forty-eight hours after the Diwali day, morning chill will be sweeping Odisha. Even, the State Capital Bhubaneswar will be seeing a nearly 3-degree drop in the minimum temperature on November 8-9.
As per the forecast charts of ACCESS-G3, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF, the winter will set on early in Odisha from November 7. And this year the first chill will envelop the district of Mayubhanj and adjoining places in Keonjhar.
Even the morning temperature in Daringibadi will dip to 14 deg C on Nov 9-11, and the Kandhamal district as a whole will record a morning temperature of around 16 deg C from next week.
However, the big forecast by ECMWF is, on November 9, places in the districts of Sambalpur, Jharsuguda and Sundargarh will witness the mercury dropping to bone-chilling 12 deg C.
Early Winter in 2021?
As per the historical data available from the year 2010 with the IMD, the morning temperature in Odisha used to go for a nip in the third week of November. Even, Daringibadi, known as Kashmir of Odisha, used to record around 20 deg C minimum temperature till Nov 15, except in the years of 2012, 2013 and 2020.
But the morning temperatures recorded in 2012, 2013 and 2019 hovered at around 19 deg C in Daringibadi. If model forecasts are to be believed, the minimum temperature this year will drop to as low as 12 deg C in some districts in western Odisha, around 14-16 deg C in Mayurbhanj-Keonjhar and Kandhamal.
IMD Forecast
As per IMD long-range forecast, the minimum temperature in Odisha will post a big drop from Nov 5. The district-wise prediction is given below.
- Nuapada, Bolangir, Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sonepur, Sundargarh, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Keonjhar and Mayurbahnaj - Minimum temperature will drop to around 14 deg C from Nov 5-6
- Angul, Boudh, Dhenkanal, parts of Kalahandi and Kandhamal are predicted to record a minimum temperature of around 16 deg C from Nov 9-10.
- The coastal region and southern Odisha districts are predicted to record a minimum temperature of around 18 deg C from Nov 8.
The IMD forecast clearly shows that winter in Odisha will commence early this year. Historically, the nip in the mercury had been observed after Nov 15. Even, last year after a drop on Nov 9 and 10, the mercury had bounced back. But the minimum temperature anomaly forecast chart of IMD makes a clear prediction that the November minimum temperature in Odisha will be at 1-2 deg C below normal this year.
The IMD forecast has also predicted a cooler November in districts like Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Sundargar, Angul and Malkangiri, as revealed by the anomaly chart of IMD.
Is La Nina The Factor?
As per the latest ENSO forecast by NOAA, a moderate La Nina phenomenon will manifest from October and will last till February 2022. However, a high probability of over 70 percent is predicted for the months of November, December and January.
The forecast predicts a 50 percent probability of neutral conditions in 2022 June. But a 30 percent probability of El Nino conditions by July -August.
La Nina conditions were there in 2020 too. Since this is the second consecutive La Nina year, weather studies predict a harsher winter in Dec 2021 and Jan 2022.
Why La Nina Brings Extreme Cold?
As per IMD studies, the La Nina phenomenon brings the cold wind from Siberia and south China to north India.
A forecast by Milton Keynes, (UK Private Weather Forecaster), due to La Nina, northern India will see a cold blast in the first half of winter (means in Dec 2021 and early Jan 2022). It foresees more western disturbances hitting India this winter. Fog and rain to dominate northern India during Dec 2021 and Jan2022.
The reason, it says, is the prevalence of warmer SST in the Mediterranean sea.