Even as the US-based NCEP-GFS model has predicted landfall place of Cyclone Jawad (Invest 94W) as West Bengal - Bangladesh coasts, when it comes to rainfall in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, the model had a consensus with all other lead Met models.
From IMD to ECMWF, NCEP-GFS and ACCESS G3, the forecast is heavy to very heavy rainfall to lash the coastal districts of Odisha. The only disagreement observed is while US-GFS predict little or no rainfall in all the Odisha districts adjoining Chhattisgarh, the rest of the models predict light rainfall at many places and moderate rainfall at few places in the districts of western Odisha.
The consensus among the models is rain to start in north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha from December 3 onwards.
The Rainfall Timeline
- December 3, 11 AM: Few places in Gajapati district, adjacent to north Andhra Pradesh will witness the first light drizzle of Cyclone Jawad.
- December 3, 12 PM: Rainfall in the range of 1-3mm will take place in districts of Ganjam, Gajapati and adjoining places in Rayagada, whereas, the districts of Vishakapatnam, Srikakulam and Palasa will record rainfall in the range of 4-5mm per hour.
- December 3, 2 PM: By this hour, rainfall will increase in the districts of Gajapati and Rayagada. The predicted range has been 2-4mm per hour.
- December 3, Evening: By the hours of 5 PM, light rainfall will take many places of Kandhamal district in its grip.
- December 3, 9 PM: Around this hour, heavy downpour in the range of 4-7mm/hr will take place at many places in the Ganjam district, including Berhampur. Also, by this hour rain will start in other districts in the State like Puri, Khordha, Koraput and Jagatsinghpur.
- December 3 Midnight: Heavy rain to lash Ganjam district. Rainfall may start in State Capital Bhubaneswar. Some places in the Cuttack district may also record heavy rainfall.
- North Andhra Pradesh districts from Vizag to Palasa will also record heavy rainfall from midnight hours.
- December 4, 1 AM: Heavy rains in State Capital Bhubaneswar and Cuttack, The rainfall will be in the range of 3-4mm/hr.
- December 4, 4 AM Heavy rain in Cuttack, Bhadrak, and some places in Mayurbhanj. Many places in western Odisha will witness light rainfall.
- December 4, 7-8 AM Heavy rainfall in the range of 4-9mm per hour to lash the districts of Vishakapatnam, Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam and Gajapati and Puri in Odisha.
- December 4, 11 AM: Extremely heavy rainfall in the range of 20mm/hr in the Vizianagram district of Andhra Pradesh. Almost all places in the Ganjam district will record heavy downpours in the range of 4-8mm/hr.
- December 4, Noon: Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in Vizianagram, Srikakulam districts in Andhra Pradesh. The whole of Ganjam will record rainfall in the range of 6-8mm/hr.
- December 4, 3 PM: The intensity of rainfall will rise in the Ganjam district. Places close to the Gajapati district will record very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall.
- December 4, 6 PM: Extremely heavy rainfall (around 30mm/hr) in Vizag and adjoining places. Very heavy downpour in the range of 10mm/hr to hit Vizianagram and Srikakulam district. The whole of Ganjam and Gajapati will witness rainfall in the range of 4-12 mm per hour.
- December 4, 9 PM: Extremely heavy downpour in the range of around 40-50mm per hour in and around Palasa. The adjoining places in Odisha's Gajapati and Ganjam district will record 8-10 cm rain.
- December 4, Midnight: Extremely heavy rainfall in Gajapati and Ganjam. The rainfall will be in the range of 16-30mm per hour.
- Even as the State capital is expected to record a sustained wind speed of around 36-40km/hr, the gusting speed may touch 56km/hr during the morning hours on Dec 4.
- In the early morning hours, the Capital city will record around 4mm rain.
- The visibility will be poor in the morning hours due to heavy rain.
- The intensity of rain will rise in the afternoon hours. The gusting wind speed will hover around 50km/hr.
- No let-up in rainfall in the evening hours too.
- The nighttime rainfall will be very heavy in Bhubaneswar
- As per NCEP-GFS, on December 4, the State capital will record nearly 90mm rainfall.
- Rain predicted on December 5 is around 18mm.
Rainfall And Wind In Cuttack
- As per model projections, on December 4, Cuttack city will record 40mm rainfall.
- Even as the sustained wind speed will be in the range of 36-40km/hr, the forecast is gusting wind speed may cross 60km/hr.
- Cuttack is predicted to record rainfall on December 5. The range is predicted at around 18mm.