Tracking eastward at 35 km/hour, in the evening hours on Wednesday, the tropical disturbance seems to be charting towards Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The minimum sea level pressure is estimated at around 1006 mb.
The system is struggling to get organised thanks to the high vertical wind shear (over 37km/hr). However, as it moves eastward, the system will enter into a zone where the wind shear will be conducive for its intensification.
By all measures, cyclogenesis will start from March 18 onwards, models indicate.
Will It Go Jawad Way?
A study of the wind models like the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF shows that the cyclonic system will have a sustained surface wind in the range of 79-88 km/hr.
While NCEP, INCOIS and BOM predict that the cyclonic storm will make landfall in Myanmar on March 22-23, ECMWF puts the landfall place between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Both the NCEP and INCOIS predict the system to weaken a while after crossing A&N Islands. NCEP even has predicted the system to weaken to a deep depression just before landfall.
Odisha Impact
Even though the probable cyclonic storm is predicted not to track towards the Indian coast, the impact of the cyclone is impending on Odisha.
With the cyclonic system going to drag the wind flow to sustain its heat engine, the northwest wind will blow to Odisha from March 21 onwards. The mercury in the State will rise across the regions in the State.
As per the NCEP forecast, the whole of western Odisha will become a burning cauldron. And the central Odisha districts will resemble a hot plate. The maximum daytime temperature is predicted to hover around 42-45 deg C between March 23 - 29. The night temperature will rise to around 28 deg C in western Odisha.
However, the impact of heatwave will not be felt in the coastal areas, if model indications are to be believed.
Bhubaneswar Climate
As per NCEP-GFS prediction, the Capital City will see a cloudy sky on March 23-24. It forecasts a spell of good rainfall in Bhubaneswar on March 23.
The predictions show the daytime temperature in Capital City will fall from March 18 onwards. The daytime maximum temperature in the Capital City will hover at around 36-37 deg C till Match 22. The maximum temperature will rise again after March 25.
Cuttack Climate
As per the UK Met predictions, the skies in Cuttack will see cloud patches along with shine on coming Monday and Tuesday. The maximum daytime temperature will rise to 38 deg C on March 22.