Bhubaneswar: Tracking at 55 km/hr in the evening hours on Sunday, the depression in the Andaman seas will become a deep depression in the next 24 hours and Cyclone Asani in the next 36 hours.
As per the satellite images, the system seems to be drifting away from the Andaman and Nicobar islands. Going by the Myanmar weather department forecast, Cyclone Asani will reach close to Rakhine coast of Myanmar on the evening of March 22 (Tuesday). The season's first cyclone will impact mostly Myanmar. Models indicate that Cyclone Asani will lead towards Coco Island.
Odisha Impact
Since Cyclone Asani will be hurtling towards Myanmar, there will be no impact whatsoever on Odisha. However, as per the NCEP forecast, the State is likely to record rainfall in the range of 2.5 mm during the period of March 25 to April 2. And the rainfall is predicted for the districts of Bhadrak and Balasore.
Capital Impact
As Cyclone Asani will drift in a northeast direction, against the earlier predicted northern track, towards the western Myanmar coast, State Capital Bhubaneswar will not witness any rainfall in the coming week. But the prediction has red herring of sort for the Capital City.
Though the City will not record any rainfall till March 27, the NCEP prediction is the daytime temperature in Capital City will hover at around 42-45 deg C on March 26, when the mercury will be hitting around 40 deg C on Mar 22 and 25.
Severe Heat Wave In April
As per the MME (multimodal ensemble) prediction by IITM, the heatwave will sweep across Odisha from March 31 to April 6. The forecast is some places in districts like Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, Bargarh and Bolangir may witness severe heatwave during the period Mar 31-Apr 6.
The model predicts heatwave, along with severe heatwave in some pockets in western Odisha, extending up to the second week of April.
More Low Pressures In April?
The IITM's CFS-based Grand Ensemble Prediction (CGEPS) forecast makes it crystal clear that no more cyclone genesis will take place in the Bay of the Bengal till mid-April, though a disturbance forecast has been made for the South China Sea in the last week of March.
The forecast by India's ace model predicts nearly 20 percent deficient rainfall in Odisha in the first fortnight of April.