Even as September last week is going to be cyclonic, it seems Odisha will come out unscathed. However, it cannot be said with certainty that the State is off the hook. The October hurdle is there and a look at the long-range model forecasts hints at a lurking threat.
When all the forecasts say Cyclone Gulab is walking towards north Andhra Pradesh coast, except ECMWF which still sticks its neck out by forecasting that the system will hit between Gopalpur and Puri, a remnant from south China sea will enter into the Bay of Bengal from Myanmar on Sept 27.
The sea conditions at the north BoB, where the sea surface temperature is around 29-30 deg C and the tropical cyclone heat potential is high, will nourish the cyclonic circulation. All models - INCOIS, IITM-MME, NCEP-GFS and ECMWF - predict the system to witness cyclone genesis. And another depression will form in the north BoB by Sept 28.
The forecast, however, shows a deep depression skirting north Odisha, but crossing the West Bengal coasts on Sept 29 to reach Jharkhand.
However, as per United States' Climate Prediction Centre, there is no probability of any cyclone genesis in the northern and central BoB after Sept 29 up to October 20.
Odisha Impact
The US-CPC forecast shows a likely cyclone between Sept 25-28. While cyclone Gulab is already on its way, another cyclone genesis (formation of depression) is possible between Sept 27-28.
All model forecasts are unanimous with regard to the impact of the second depression on Odisha. As the system will cross the West Bengal coasts and will move in a northwest direction, the State will feel the very little impact of the system.
Widespread rainfall is predicted across Odisha. Districts bordering Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh are likely to record moderate to heavy rainfall during Sept 28 and 29. But the rainfall will be in the range of around 1mm/hr.
Since the system is predicted to bring heavy downpour in Jharkhand, Odisha may have to face the flood blues in the Brahmani-Baitarani and Subarnarekha basins.
The October Story
Since October is known as the stormy month for Odisha, there is good news for the State that there is unlikely to be any weather disturbances in the BoB till October 21.
However, around October 24, model forecasts predict the formation of some weather disturbances in the northeast Andaman seas.
The long-range forecasts of both ECMWF and GFS predict likely cyclogenesis and the system moving towards north Odisha -West Bengal coasts.
As per IITM-MME, remnants from a system will likely enter the Andaman seas after October 20. Since the Andaman seas favour the formation of cyclone genesis during the last week of October, it remains to be seen whether the Seas aid the formation of cyclones this time too?