The Covid-19 positive cases in Odisha have seemingly taken a pole vault jump. Between December 26, 2021 and January 3, 2022, the daily caseload has effected a massive 507 percent rise. The spurt in cases in the State is apparently in sync with the national trend.
As per the Union Health Ministry data, the new daily confirmed cases in the country was 6,531 on Dec 26, 2021. The tally posted a quantum leap to touch 37,379 on January 3, 2022. The growth rate in daily cases has been 465 percent.
More so, despite testing 5 percent fewer samples on Jan 3, 2022 vis-a-vis Jan 2, the daily caseload, however, has grown by a whopping over 60 percent. Also, when the RTPCR testing range in Odisha is still far below at around 45-46 percent as against the norm of 60-70 percent.
In the given backdrop, when both the State and country had witnessed an astronomical rise in the cases during the last week of December, is the sharp spike triggered by the high-speed Omicron variant or Delta or Delmicron?
Whodunit?
The first omicron case in India was detected on December 2, 2021, and the first case in Odisha was reported on Dec 21, 2021.
A look at the INSACOG (Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium ) data reveals big. The rising Covid numbers in the country and the State are due to Omicron and Delta. The genome sequencing data across the country in Dec 2021 disclosed that the home-grown Delta variant now constitute only 39 percent of the genome sequenced, whereas, the other variants took a share of around 53 percent, of which Omicron sequenced genomes alone took a share of around 23 percent.
The INSACOG genome sequencing data revealed more. Delta cases in the country had posted a rise to 39 percent of the total genomes sequenced in the country in December. The sequenced Delta cases stood at the lowest in October 2021 at 24 percent; whereas Omicron grew from zero to 23 percent.
Moreover, the Delta variant sub-lineages AY.33, AY.44 etc corner another 6 percent share. So, the Delta and its sub-lineage in India, including Odisha, had a share of around 47 percent.
From the above data, the big inference is of every 100 genomes sequenced, 70 percent of new cases in the country are Delta and Omicron. Though Delmicron, a combination of Delta and Omicron infections, can be attributed to the rise in cases in the country, including Odisha, in December, the surge is seemingly triggered by Omicron as the sequenced genome grew from nowhere to around 25 percent as of date.
Third Wave Pace: Odisha Vs India
With the net rate of transmission (Rt) value in Odisha touching 1 on Dec 24, the impact is clearly visible as the active cases in the State have grown by over 81 percent between December 29, 2021, and January 3, 2022.
In contrast, the active cases in the preceding week had actually dropped by 13 percent between Dec 23-Dec 28, 2021.
India: A glance at the growth of Active cases in the country tells the tale. While in the week of Dec 22-28, the active caseload in the country had posted a 1 percent decline, in the subsequent week- Dec 29 to Jan 3- the growth in active caseload has been 103 percent.
A comparison shows that when from (-13 percent) drop, the State went on to record a high of 81 percent growth in the week ending on Jan 3, 2022, the average growth of actives in the country dropped by 1 percent in the previous week and grew by 103 percent between Dec 29, 2021, and Jan 3, 2022.
Doubling Time: On Jan 3, 2022, the doubling time in Odisha is estimated at 238.6 days as against the country's 251 days.
The bottom line here is as per the above indicators, Odisha is all set to witness faster growth in the cases in days to come.