Odisha is yet to forget the near-miss by the very severe cyclonic storm Bulbul in November 2019, especially when the State was badly battered by the extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani in May that year.
The VSCS Bulbul had made landfall in West Bengal's south Parganas on Nov 11, 2019, though a ripple effect had been observed in the north coastal Odisha districts.
The Bay of Bengal this year seems to be hot. Leading weather forecasters have predicted two cyclonegenesis between November 10- 20. And both systems, like the Bulbul which was formed from the remnants of cyclonic storm Matmo, will be fuelled by disturbances from the pacific sea.
As per all the lead Met models - IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, on and around Nov 9, a low pressure area will form in the south Bay of Bengal, very close to Sri Lanka. Moving in a north direction, the system will intensify into a well-marked low in the next 18-24 hours, and will gradually take a west turn and move towards the north Tamil Nadu coast.
The model forecasts predict cyclonegenesis. There is a high possibility of the system intensifying into a depression near the TN coast on and around Nov 11. The prediction is the system will cross the north Tamil Nadu coast during the night hours of Nov 11. The landfall place is likely around Chennai.
Note: IMD GFS predicts the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm on and around Nov 10.
Odisha Impact
As a consequence, southern districts and south Odisha coastal areas may witness some drizzle during the evening hours on November 12.
The Extra
As per NCEP-GFS and ECMWF, the crossing over a disturbance from the Pacific sea will emerge as a low pressure area near Andaman and Nicobar islands on and around Nov 15. The prediction is the system will gradually move to the central Bay of Bengal.
The models forecast the intensification of the low pressure system into a well-marked low during the subsequent days. Forecasting further, the models say the system will track northwest direction and move towards the Odisha coast.
The Twist
As per the US-GFS model, as and when the system will be nearing the Odisha coast, it will weaken gradually and track a northeast direction to move towards West Bengal. Light rainfall was predicted in West Bengal and north Odisha districts adjoining West Bengal on and around November 22.