Asteroid may hit Moon in 2032, scientists weigh risks and research gains

Scientists are monitoring a newly identified asteroid that could strike the Moon in December 2032, an event that may send debris toward Earth, posing satellite risks while offering a rare research opportunity. 

Asteroid 2024 YR4, about 60 metres wide, currently carries a 4 percent chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032. Though the odds are low, researchers say such an impact would be powerful enough to draw global scientific attention.

Impact Could Reveal Lunar Secrets

A study led by Yifan He of Tsinghua University, released as a preprint on arXiv, explores what could be learned if the collision occurs. According to the paper, the strike would release energy comparable to a medium-sized thermonuclear explosion, potentially making it the strongest Moon impact observed in modern times. Researchers estimate it could create a crater about one kilometre wide and trigger a global moonquake of roughly magnitude 5, offering rare insight into the Moon’s internal structure.

Debris Risks And Satellite Threats

The blast could eject large volumes of material into space. Some debris might reach Earth days later, producing a dramatic meteor display visible over South America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. 

However, scientists warn that falling fragments could damage property and threaten satellites, raising concerns about cascading orbital debris. Space agencies are discussing whether deflection is needed.