New Delhi: Assam is heading for a photo-finish in the Assembly elections with the UPA looking poised to close the gap with the ruling NDA.
As per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win 65 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, just one more than the majority mark of 64, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) closely following on its heels with 59 seats.
The projected seats are 53 to 66 for the UPA and 58 to 71 for the NDA.
The UPA will gain 33 seats with its biggest gain in lower Assam with 12 seats and 9 seats in the Barak Valley. The UPA will get 22 seats in lower Assam, while it will loose one seat in the hills.
As per the exit poll, the Congress-led 10-party ‘Mahajot’ (grand alliance) will get 48.8 per cent votes, while the NDA will get 42.9 per cent and others 8.3 per cent.
There is a 17.8 per cent vote swing in favour of the UPA, and 1.4 per cent swing in favour of the NDA. In 2016, the UPA had got 31 per cent votes, while the NDA managed 41.5 per cent votes and 27.5 per cent.
The NDA is set to loose 21 seats with highest loss of 7 seats in lower Assam and Barak Valley.
In the Bodoland the NDA is set to win 10 seats, while in the tea estate areas it is poised to win 29 seats, repeating its 2016 performance.
The 126-member Assam Assembly may see a hung Assembly and Independents and others will be the key players in such a scenario.
Assam went to polls in three phases and the counting will take place on May 2.
LDF To Retain Power In Kerala, Vote Swing In Favour Of UDF
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Kerala Chief Minister Pinaryi Vijayan is poised to make a comeback to power in the state for the second time in a row, but not with a thumping majority though,
According to the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, it’s a straight forward electoral battle between the incumbent LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
The exit poll predicts that the ruling LDF is expected to retain power in the southern state, defying the trend of the incumbent tasting defeat in every second electoral cycle.
The 140-member Kerala Assembly went to the polls in a single phase on April 6.
As per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, the Left alliance is expected to win 71 to 77 seats, with 71 being the majority mark. The main opposition – the UDF – is likely to secure 62 to 68 seats.
The NDA will continue to remain a marginal player in the state with 0 to 2 seats.
In 2016 Assembly elections, the LDF had won 91 seats, the UDF secured 47 seats, the NDA got one, while one seat went to an Independent.
According to exit poll data, the ruling LDF is projected to secure 42.8 per cent votes. The UDF is expected to get 41.4 per cent vote share whie the NDA is likely to get 13.7 per cent votes.
In the 2016 Assembly polls, the LDF had got 43.5 per cent vote share, hence the ruling alliance is likely to witness a marginal dip of 0.7 per cent this time.
Ther UDF had secured 38.8 per cent votes in 2016, marking a swing of 2.6 per cent this time, while the NDA had secured 14.9 per cent votes last time, showing a dip of 1.7 per cent vote share in the latest polls.
According to the exit poll, thr LDF and UDF are expected to secure maximum seats in North Kerala, where the LDF is likely to win 34 to 36 seats, followed by the UDF with 24 to 26 seats.
In South Kerala, the LDF is likely to win 21 to 23 seats and the UDF is expected to garner 15 to 17 seats.
In Central Kerala, the LDF is projected to win 16 to 18 seats, while the UDF is expected to manage 23 to 25 seats.
NDA To Win Puducherry
The BJP-led NDA is winning Puducherry, as per the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News.
The findings and projections are based on personal interviews conducted statewide on and after polling day among adults, all confirmed voters.
The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the states. “We believe this will give the closest possible trends,” said C-Voter founder and psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh.
The Delhi-based polling agency highlighted in its exit poll that Mamata Banerjee is set to retain West Bengal, even as the BJP is likely to win on 109 to 121 seats, while the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will win Tamil Nadu with a big majority.
The sample size of the exit poll was 28,393 in Assam, 43,630 in Tamil Nadu, 5,003 in Puducherry, 26,447 in Kerala and 85,000 in West Bengal.
Deshmukh also said that for the analytics, they used proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon. The same algorithm has been used to extrapolate the vote share projections into probable seat share in range.
The C-Voter exit poll data collection starts right after the polling process and continues until the elections are over.
“Technically speaking, for a single state, we conduct interviews across randomly selected polling booths across all assembly segments,” Deshmukh said.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala went to the polls in a single phase on April 6. In West Bengal, polling was held in eight phases from March 27 to April 29. In Assam polling was held in three phases from March 27 to April 6.