Bhubaneswar: Like an expansionist, the novel coronavirus is fast redrawing its map boundary in India.
In just 6-days time, Covid-19 footprints are conspicuous in 132 districts across the country from 75 districts on March 22. After a lull for few days, the Covid-19 cases recorded the highest-ever single day count on March 27. The rate at which novel coronavirus is racing up, it seems very likely to cross the 1000-mark today itself. As on 3 PM, the count has touched 933. The growth rate seems to have reverted to pre-lockdown rate.
However, the only shinning spot in country's fight against corona is the doubling rate of n-CoV infections has slowed down marginally in the lockdown period. A look at the graph given below illustrates it quite emphatically.
For instance, the country took nearly 6 days to cross the 60 count on March 11 from 30 cases on March 5. Similarly, the novel coronavirus consumed another 6 days to touch 140 mark from 71 on March 11.
However, within 4-days, the n-CoV count doubled in India to touch 315 on March 20. Lockdown like restrictions to ensure social distancing enforced from March 21 in 32 states and UTs. The virus took 5-days to double its count on March 25. At the current rate of growth, it seems it will take another 5-days to double the counts to over 1200 - which means the total Covid-19 cases in the country will cross the 1200 mark on April 1.
While ICMR's lead scientist and head of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases-I (ECD-I), Division, Dr RR Gangakhedkar today again ruled out Covid-19 acquiring the level of community transmission in India, a look at the data set available with the ICMR puts it in right perspective.
A massive 93 per cent Covid-19 positives in the country either have a travel history or are close contacts of the Covid-19 positives. Only around 2 per cent n-CoV positives have no travel history. Infection of one healthcare staff reported from Haryana. Another 16 infections reported under contact transmission - means travelling in same plane, train and bus etc.
The data set very clearly shows no trace of widespread transmission at the community level in country till date. Though as per ICMR's changed guidelines, nearly 3 lakh individuals are under surveillance in states like Kerala, Punjab and J&K.
It needs mentioning here that ICMR has recently directed to undertake Covid-19 test for individuals afflicted with SARI (Severe Acute Respiratory Illness) conditions. As per Gangakhedkar, this new guideline is enough to ascertain the spread of Covid-19 at the community level in India.
Other major Covid-19 inferences:
* Recovery rate in world stood at around 22 per cent. The rate in India improved to 9 per cent on March 28 from 6.6 per cent on March 26.
* The death rate in world stood at 4 per cent. In India, the rate on March 28 stood at 2.2 per cent.
*The gap between new cases and new recoveries reported is still very high. For instance, on March 19, new recovery cases accounted 24 per cent of new cases. But on March 27, the new recoveries were only 17 per cent of the total new cases.
This shows the Covid-19 cases in the country is comparatively moving at a higher pace than new recoveries.