Bhubaneswar: The novel coronavirus is striving hard to grow like a Goliath in the country. To beak the growth chain, while PM Narendra Modi declared growth inhibitors like total lockdown, a section in the country has started advocating for having a planned lockdown.
Strategically lockdown or curfew is never planned but imposed abruptly to rein in mob riots or riot by a virus/pathogens. Planned lockdown is not a global practice during times of epidemic. But such abrupt intervention stories have always had another side to it in form of miseries.
A case in point is the plight of migrant workers. The situation exploded on the road, solely due to the failure of disaster and relief machinery in all states.
However, the impact of lockdown is being debated with arguments that cases of Covid-19 are rising in the country, even during the lockdown phase. So let’s look at a fact check. Studies show not only India, the impact of lockdown globally on the spread of novel coronavirus is positive.
First let’s consider the Indian scenario. A look at the graph clearly shows how the growth in Covid-19 cases in the country went downhill during the lockdown period. The graphical description tracks the growth rate of Covid-19 cases in the country since the Janta curfew day.
Moreover, a look at the number of positive cases recorded during the period of March 22 -30 shows nCoV took 5-days to double from earlier doubling rate of 4-days.
The impact of lockdown is also well documented globally. Take a look at the graph below. It explains how the growth rate of novel coronavirus cases globally has started a downward journey post imposition of lockdown. Significantly the graph also shows growth of Covid-19 cases in high-burden countries slowing down.
Also, a look at the graph of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US, number one country in cases of nCoV, clearly shows the early signs of recoup. Earlier, cases in US were doubling every 3 days. Now, cases take 4 days to double.
In Italy, the Covid-19 cases last week took nearly 7-days to double vis-a-vis 3-4 days earlier. Italy imposed total lockdown from March 8.
Is Indian situation better off than globally?
India, US and Italy reported their first case on January 29. A look at some vital determinants shows India relatively stands in a better situation.
While confirmed Covid-19 cases under treatment in ICU in the US stood at 2,970, the number in Italy stood higher at 3,906. The number for other high-burden countries ranges between 4,000 and 2,000.
When the proportion of total critical Covid-19 cases in US is estimated at 2 per cent, the proportion in Italy stood at 5 per cent and 7 per cent in Spain.
In contrast, despite recording nearly 1,100 cases as on today, the total nCoV cases treated at ICU in India stood at nil. Almost all the 942 active cases in India show only mild symptoms.
More significant is the recovery rate in India today stood at 9.28 per cent vis-a-vis mere 3.2 per cent in US.The gap between new recoveries and new cases has narrowed down in India (View the image below).
The recovery rate in Spain and Italy stood higher at 18 and 13 per cent, respectively, but the death rate in both the countries stood at a high of 11 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the death rate in India stood at mere 2.4 per cent.