Present tense, future good: Economic Survey
Attributing the decline in economic growth, which is projected to be at three-year low of 6.9 per cent in 2011-12, to global and domestic factors, the Survey, said, "There are signs from some high frequency indicators that the weakness in economic activity has bottomed out and a gradual upswing is imminent". The economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to slip to 6.9 per cent from 8.4 per cent in the previous two years. India was growing at over nine per cent before the global financial crisis pulled down the growth to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09.
On future prospects, the Survey, an official account of the performance of the economy, said, "The growth rate of real GDP (is expected) to pick up to 7.6 per cent (plus or minus 0.25 per cent) in 2012-13 and faster beyond that." The growth rate will further improve to 8.6 per cent in 2013-14.
Referring to the major challenges, the Survey said, the government would need to focus on fiscal consolidation, inflation management and reforms of direct and indirect taxes, besides initiating steps to deal with the menace of corruption. It further said that likely easing of inflationary pressure and subsequent reduction in interest rates would fuel economic growth, though cautioned that rising crude prices in the international market would continue to put pressure on prices.