Emerging markets to face credit crisis in 2019: Report
New Delhi: Credit crisis in emerging markets like India is likely to grow both in scale and scope in 2019 due to the foreign-denominated debt and currency depreciations, a study said on Thursday.
“An emerging markets credit crisis will unfold in 2019… Pressure on emerging markets will also mount as the US Federal Reserve increases interest rates and the dollar strengthens, raising the cost of repaying foreign currency-denominated loans,” an A.T. Kearney report said.
China, which owns roughly 20 per cent of African nations’ external government debt, will not have its debts due by the end of the year serviced, the report said.
Argentina’s balance of payments has been strained by both domestic and foreign investors liquidating their positions in on-shore peso assets. As a result, the IMF dispersed a three-year stand-by agreement loan of $57 billion.
“Pakistan recently said it also intends to seek an IMF bailout as its foreign currency reserves dwindle,” it said. The credit crisis will lead to at least two more countries joining Pakistan in asking IMF for bailouts in 2019, it added.
However, on a positive note, the report said the emerging markets of Africa will greatly enhance their interconnectivity in 2019, which could begin to put the region on a more sustainable growth path.
The report also predicted further deepening of relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that they would “become more vocal critics, both together and separately, of US trade policies and other ‘America First’ actions”.
The crucial US-China relationship is likely to worsen significantly on US President Donald Trump’s hardline approach to reduce bilateral trade deficit with China.