The paddy farmers across Bhadrak district were hopeful that this year they would have a good harvest. Their hope was dashed to the ground when unseasonal rainfall caused by cyclone Michaung lashed the district. The farmers didn’t even get time to cut and shift their harvest-ready crops to safer places. As of now, at places, knee-deep water is found in paddy fields.
The farmers alleged they wouldn’t get anything. As rainwater is standing in the paddy fields they can’t harvest paddy now and by the time the water dries up, the crops would have been damaged.
Also Read: Another Odisha farmer ends life by consuming poison due to ‘crop loss; family alleges admin's apathy
The spectre of crop loss has left the farmers a worried lot. They are stressed over the loans taken from friends, relatives, and banks.
“It will be a difficult task to harvest our paddy crops as water is standing in the fields. By the time the fields get dry, the paddy would be sprouting,” said a farmer.
Another farmer rued, “Under the impact of the rainfall, the paddy plants have fallen and submerged in water. At this time, harvest is impossible. Loss is inevitable.”
Expressing her difficulties, a female farmer said, ‘I am a sharecropper. I had availed bank loan to grow paddy. How can I repay the loans?”
Many residential areas have been completely inundated. People are finding it extremely difficult even to avail basic essentials as they are unable to step out of their homes.
Seeing the gravity of the situation, south star Vijay Thalapathy, came out with an appeal to speed up the rescue operations.
Thalapathy took to his official Instagram handle and urged his fan clubs to help the people stranded in the affected areas.
The official post read, “Due to the heavy rains of Cyclone Michuang, a lot of people were affected in Tamil Nadu and Chennai. The public including children, women, and elderly people are suffering due to the devastation caused by the cyclone. Thousands of people are suffering without water, food, and basic facilities. I request people of welfare club members to volunteer to help the people in the affected areas and volunteer in rescue missions undertaken by the government. Let us join hands to remove grief,”
Thalapathy’s fans have praised him for his effort to help the needy and filled the comment section with positive remarks.
It is to be noted that Cyclone Michaung has left a trail of destruction in some parts of southern Odisha as well. The incessant rain that began on Tuesday night and continued till Thursday morning caused a landslide at Bariput under Koraput’s Narayanpatna block on Wednesday night. The landslide reportedly disrupted road communication.
It is pertinent to mention here that several parts of Odisha experienced widespread rainfall during the last couple of days under the influence of cyclone Michaung.
In its letter to district Collectors, SRC Satyabrata Sahu said that an Agricultural Input Subsidy (AIS) will be provided to farmers sustaining crop loss of 33 percent and above as per norms of the State Disaster Response Fund.
“You are requested to conduct field-level crop assessment through joint inquiry by the officials of the Revenue and Disaster Management and Agriculture Department through eye estimation to ascertain the crop area damage of 33 percent and above and submit ULB, block, gram panchayat-wise report by December 12, 2023,” the SRC letter read.
The Odisha government has asked officials to verify the land schedule, and RoR of affected farmers from Bhulekh while assessing the extent of crop loss.
The system is hovering about 50 km east-northeast of Khammam. It is likely to weaken further into a Well-Marked Low-Pressure Area in next six hours.
“The system is moving at around 11kmph towards north and has laid centrerd over north-east Telangana and south-west Odisha border. It is likely to move more towards Chhattisgarh and weaken into a Low Pressure," the IMD said.
Under its influence, some southern Odisha districts have experienced heavy rainfall since last night. As per the IMD, Pottangi in Koraput recorded 106 mm rainfall in the last 24 hours, the highest in Odisha. Semiliguda recorded 86 mm and 67.2mm rainfall was recorded in Koraput town.
The weather is expected to remain cloudy with rains in many places in the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the farmers in Gajapati’s Mohana block are likely to suffer loss as rainwater inundated their farmlands which threatens to damage their crops. And the rains have become more intense since this morning.
“The rain came before we could harvest our crop completely and take it to safer place. A lot of crops have been damaged. We have availed loans to grow paddy. But this rain destroyed all our hopes,” lamented a farmer in Mohana.
It is pertinent to mention here that the Odisha government and district administration have already advised farmers to take their harvested crops to safer places and not leave them out in the open.
Earlier, the block agricultural officers created awareness in their respective blocks, and using public address systems, farmers were requested to bring their ripened paddy and vegetable crops to safer places. The farmers in Aska have been advised to bring their ready-to-harvest crops to their houses and cover them with polythene sheets.
However, the unseasonal rain has left the farmers in the district a worried lot. Even though they are hastily bringing their crops to their yards, they are not finding adequate space for all the harvest.
“After we came to know about the cyclone, we including our children are doing everything to save our crops,” said Madhuri Nahak, a female farmer.
When asked, the district agriculture officer in-charge, Basudeb Sahu said, “We are creating awareness about how the crops can be saved from rain. We are sending out messages to farmers’ mobile phones. The farmers are also receiving our messages positively. They have already started to store their harvested crops.”
Also Read: Cyclone Michaung: Orange warning for heavy rainfall in Odisha districts till Dec 6 early hours
Notably, under the impact of cyclone ‘Michaung’, Odisha's Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Ganjam and Gajapati districts have been receiving rains since Monday evening. Gajapati received 8.5 mm rainfall, followed by Koraput ( 8.3 mm), Ganjam (3.9 mm), Malkangiri (2.5 mm), and Rayagada ( 1.5 mm) between 5.30 pm on Monday and 8.30 am on Tuesday, the Met Department said.
Meanwhile, several parts of Odisha also experienced rainfall activities under its influence. The IMD has predicted that several districts of Odisha are likely to experience heavy rainfall activities in the next 24 hours.
Day 1 (Valid upto 0830 hrs IST of 06.12.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower very likely to occur at most places over the districts of Ganajam, Gajapati, Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Nabarangpur.
Orange Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall (7 to 20cm) very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Malkangiri, Koraput, and Rayagada.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall (7 to 11cm) very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Gajapati, Ganjam,Nabarangpur, Kalahandi,and Kandhamal.
Day 2 (Valid from 0830 hrs IST of 06.12.2023 to 0830 hrs IST of 07.12.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower is very likely to occur at most places over the districts of Ganajam, Gajapati, Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Nabarangpur.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall (7 to 11cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Nabarangpur,Kalahandi,Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri and Rayagada.
The authorities said that families have been evacuated from the affected areas, while pregant women, children and elderly people were rescued from the danger zones.
On Tuesday morning, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin conducted an inspection of the cyclone-hit regions, monitored the rescue operations and facilities extended to the affected people.
He said that the impact, in terms of loss of life, has been reduced to a great extent due to precautionary measures, systematic improvements, and comprehensive structural preparations.
He also visited a relief camp set up in Kannappar Thidal, Chennai.
Rescue and relief works are being carried out on a war footing.
Chennai was spared extensive damage due to the stormwater drain projects implemented by the DMK government.
Despite heavy rain, the damages are less compared to previous times, according to Stalin.
Approximately 5,000 workers from different parts of Tamil Nadu have been deployed to Chennai to carry out relief work.
At least 162 relief centres are currently operating across the state, with 43 of them in Chennai.
Food is beingsupplied from the 20 kitchens operational in the state capital.
Meanwhile, flight services have resumed at Chennai airport after remaining suspended on Monday to the cyclone's impact.
Airport staff have however, been advised to remain vigilant.
(Except for the headline, this story, from a syndicated feed, has not been edited by Odishatv.in staff)
As per IMD’s latest update, the severe cyclonic storm Michaung is likely to move nearly northwards and cross South Andhra Pradesh coast close to Bapatla during the next two hours.
During the landfall process, the severe cyclonic storm is likely to pass with a maximum sustained wind speed of 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on 5th December. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on 6th December.
Telangana: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall on 5th December and heavy rainfall is likely on 06th December.
Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over south Chhattisgarh, south Coastal and adjoining south Interior Odisha on 5th and isolated heavy rainfall over the same region on 6th December.
Chhattisgarh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Chhattisgarh on 05th & 6th December.
Vidarbha: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy rainfall is likelyover Vidarbha on 6 th December.
All the primary, upper primary and high schools will remain closed tomorrow, informed Gajapati Collector, Smruti Ranjan Pradhan.
“Rainfall is likely to occur in the district and the intensity is expected to be high. Therefore, as a precautionary measure, we have decided to keep all the educational institutions closed tomorrow,” said Pradhan.
ODRAF teams have been divided into three teams and one team each will be sent to Raigad and Mohana which are vulnerable places, said the Collector.
“The decision for closure of schools has been taken to ensure the safety of students as well as to use the school buildings for rehabilitating people if there is a need,” Pradhan added.
Meanwhile, two flights from Biju Patnaik International Airport in Bhubaneswar to Chennai and Bengaluru have been cancelled today.
“The morning flight to Chennai and one to Bengaluru have been cancelled due to unavailability of aircraft and some cascading effect of the cyclone. Other flight operations are regular from Bhubaneswar,” said Bhubaneswar airport director, Prasanna Pradhan.
The airport officials informed that flight operations to Chennai are likely to resume by tonight.
Rainfall has been recorded in Odisha's Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Ganjam and Gajapati districts since Monday evening, officials said.
Gajapati received 8.5 mm rainfall, followed by 8.3 mm in Koraput, 3.9 mm in Ganjam, 2.5 mm in Malkangiri and 1.5 mm in Rayagada between 5.30 pm on Monday and 8.30 am on Tuesday, the Met Department said.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra had said on Monday that though there will be no major impact on Odisha, heavy rain is likely at some places in the eastern state on Tuesday.
The severe cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal along and off south Andhra Pradesh coast moved northwards with a speed of 12 kmph during the past six hours and lay centered at 8.30 am of Tuesday at a distance of about 40 km northeast of Kavali, 80 km north-northeast of Nellore, 80 km south-southwest of Baptala and 140 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam, an IMD bulletin said.
"The system is likely to move nearly northwards parallel and close to south Andhra Pradesh coast and cross it close to Bapatla during the next four hours as a severe cyclone with a maximum sustained wind speed of 90-100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph," it said.
Authorities have deployed five teams of ODRAF (Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force) and eight teams from the fire service department for rescue operations in the five southern districts - Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam - the state's Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) Satyabrata Sahu said.
Meanwhile, the IMD issued a yellow warning of heavy rain for one or two places in Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Nayagarh, Khurda, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri and Rayagada districts on December 6.
It had also warned of squally weather conditions, with wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph, gusting to 55 kmph along and off the Odisha coast in Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts from the evening of December 4, and it is likely to gradually increase to 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, from the evening of December 5 for the subsequent 12 hours.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into deep sea along and off the Odisha coast during December 4-6.
Michaung' had wreaked havoc across Chennai and adjoining districts on Monday, causing flooding and disrupting normal life.
Talking over the phone, he stated that as per the prediction of the IMD, though the cyclonic storm will have no direct impact on Odisha, some parts of the state are likely to experience heavy rainfall under the impact of the cyclone. It is apprehended that the heavy rains as predicted by meteorologists are likely to cause damage to crops at harvest time.
“An orange warning has been issued for the districts like Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam which are likely to experience heavy rainfall. However, the intensity of the wind speed will be far less – within 40 to 50 km/hr. But rains will occur,” he added.
Similarly, a yellow warning has been issued to Kalahandi, Nabarangpur and Kandhamal districts.
The SRC also said that as there is a possibility of incidents/mishaps like landslides and trees being uprooted in these districts, five ODRAF teams and eight teams of fire brigade have been sent to some areas. They will support the administration in the relief and rescue operations.
Sahu also added that fishermen along the coasts have been warned against venturing into the seas till the evening of December 6.
“Currently, paddy harvest is going on in the state. At some places crop cutting is continuing Heavy rains will hamper the harvesting activities and damage crops. We have issued an advisory through the agriculture department to disseminate information to farmers on how to save their crops,’ Sahu said.
Currently, the severe cyclonic storm Michaung lay centered over Westcentral and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts. The severe cyclonic storm Michaung is about 90 km east-northeast of Chennai, 170 km southeast of Nellore, 200 km northeast of Puducherry, 300 km south-southeast of Bapatla and 320 km south of Machilipatnam.
As per IMD, Michaung is moving nearly northwards almost parallel and close to the south Andhra Pradesh coast. As per the projected path, the severe cyclonic storm is likely to cross the South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla during the forenoon of December 5 as a severe cyclonic storm. The maximum sustained wind speed is likely to be around 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 km/ph, IMD said.
As per official sources, the Indian Railways has come up with an emergency control cell at the Divisional/HQ level. Officers from Operating, Commercial, Engineering, Electrical, Signal/Telecommunications and Security sections have been deployed in each shift to monitor the situation round-the-clock and take necessary action in connection with train operations.
As per a PIB report, war room at board level has also been activated and monitoring of all location is being done round the clock. Safety counsellors in each shift are also nominated to assist with the Emergency control.
General Instructions
The cyclone will be accompanied by incessant rains. ln sections where trains are to be run in spite of incessant rains, monsoon patrolling should be ensured.
Monsoon reserve trains, accident relief trains and tower wagons need to be kept in readiness, fully fuelled up and with full complement of tools, spares, accessories and rations (with locos provided wherever not self-powered).
Adequate number of Breakdown staff of track, Traction and Signal & Telecommunications to be kept in readiness to attend to restoration work, the report added.
All resources have been mobilised and necessary measures will be taken to restore train services after the cyclone. Chief PRO, ECoR informed that as per the instructions of South Central Railway and Southern Railway steps are being taken to regulate movement of trains. So far, 60 express trains originating, terminating and passing through ECoR’s jurisdiction have been cancelled to ensure safety of passengers.
Helpline numbers have also been issued for the passengers to get information. The Helpline numbers are: 0674-2301525, 23016,2303060
ECoR opened Crisis Management Cell for Cyclone Michaung:
— East Coast Railway (@EastCoastRail) December 4, 2023
▶️Helpline Numbers at Bhubaneswar, Visakhapatnam & Srikakulam Road Station.
▶️List of Cancelled Trains in ECoR 👇👇👇@RailMinIndia #ECoRupdate #Michaungcyclone pic.twitter.com/qHZAAMuNzI
Earlier, the IMD informed that the cyclonic storm ‘Michaung’ has intensified into a severe cyclonic storm after moving north-westwards. Currently, the severe cyclonic storm Michaung lay centered over Westcentral and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts.
The severe cyclonic storm Michaung is about 90 km east-northeast of Chennai, 170 km southeast of Nellore, 200 km northeast of Puducherry, 300 km south-southeast of Bapatla and 320 km south of Machilipatnam.
As per IMD, Michaung is likely to intensify gradually and move nearly northwards almost parallel and close to the south Andhra Pradesh coast. As per the projected path, the severe cyclonic storm is likely to cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla during forenoon of December 5 as a severe cyclonic storm.
Currently, the severe cyclonic storm Michaung lay centered over Westcentral and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts. The severe cyclonic storm Michaung is about 90 km east-northeast of Chennai, 170 km southeast of Nellore, 200 km northeast of Puducherry, 300 km south-southeast of Bapatla and 320 km south of Machilipatnam.
As per IMD, Michaung is likely to intensify gradually and move nearly northwards almost parallel and close to the south Andhra Pradesh coast.
As per the projected path, the severe cyclonic storm is likely to cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla during forenoon of December 5 as a severe cyclonic storm. The maximum sustained wind speed is likely to be around 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph, IMD said.
North Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls is very likely on December 4 and isolated heavy rainfall on December 5.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on December 4 and 5. Heavy rainfall at one or two places is also likely over south-coastal Andhra Pradesh on December 4 and over north-coastal and adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh on December 5. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on December 6.
Telangana: Light to moderate rainfall at a few places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely on December 4. It is likely to increase becoming light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over the same region on December 5.
The severe cyclonic storm Michaung is likely to cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla during the forenoon of December 5 as a severe cyclonic storm.
After crossing the coast with maximum sustained wind speed is likely to be around 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph, the system is likely to head towards southern Odisha. By the time, the system would have weakened. Under its influence, several parts of Odisha will experience rainfall activities from December 4 onwards, said Mohapatra.
According to the IMD DG, the intensity of rainfall is likely to increase from December 5. Some districts are likely to experience heavy rainfall activities, he said.
“The wind speed in interior parts of southern Odisha will be around 35 to 45 kmph and south coastal districts will experience 40 to 50 kmph on December 5 and 6. There is no likely of possible damage to structures, but it may crops due to rain and wind. Fishermen should not venture into sea till December 6,”said Mohapatra.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday informed that the cyclonic storm Michaung is currently about 290 km east-southeast of Puducherry, 290 km southeast of Chennai, 420 km southeast of Nellore, 530 km south-southeast of Bapatla and 530 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam.
“It would move nearly northwards almost parallel and close to south Andhra Pradesh coast and cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam during forenoon of 5th December as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph,” said IMD.
Day 2 (Valid from 0830 hours IST of 4.12.2023 to 0830 hours IST of 5.12.2023)
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall (7 to 11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati, Ganjam.
Day 3 (Valid from 0830 hours IST of 5.12.2023 to 0830 hours IST of 6.12.2023)
Orange Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall (7 to 11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Kandhamal and Puri.
Day 4 (Valid from 0830 hours IST of 6.12.2023 to 0830 hours IST of 7.12.2023)
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall (7 to 11 cm) is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Nayagarh, Khordha, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri and Rayagada.
It is likely to move parallelly and close to south Andhra Pradesh coast and cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam during forenoon of December 5 as a Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph, said IMD.
As per the forecast, the cyclonic storm Michaung is likely to trigger heavy rainfall in several states including coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Odisha.
North Coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places is very likely on December 3 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on December 4, 2023.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh likely on December 3 and heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on December 4 and 5. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on December 6 .
Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over south Coastal and adjoining south Interior Odisha during December 4 to December 6 with isolated very heavy rainfall over the same region on December 5.
The system lay centered about 300 km east-southeast of Puducherry, 310 km southeast of Chennai, 440 km southeast of Nellore, 550 km south-southeast of Bapatla and 550 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam.
As per IMD, cyclonic storm is likely to continue to move north-westwards and further intensify and reach Westcentral Bay Of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts by December 4 forenoon.
“Thereafter, it would move nearly northwards almost parallel and close to south Andhra Pradesh coast and cross South Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam during forenoon of December 5 as a Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph,” said IMD.
"As of now 54 express trains originating, terminating and passing through ECoR's jurisdiction have been cancelled by Indian Railways," the East Coast Railway (ECoR) informed.
In the press statement, the ECoR said that this has been done to ensure the safety of passengers.
Below is a list of the trains originating, terminating and passing through the jurisdiction of the ECoR that have been cancelled.
1. 03357 Barauni-Coimbatore Spl Express on 02.12.2023.
2. 03358 Coimbatore-Barauni Spl Express on 06.12.2023.
3. 12245 Howrah-SMVB Express on 03.12.2023.
4. 12246 SMVB-Howrah Express on 05.12.2023.
5. 12510 Guwahti-SMVB Express on 03.12.2023 & 04.12.2023.
6. 12509 SMVB-Guwahati Express on 05.12.2023 & 06.12.2023.
7. 12659 Nagercoil-Shalimar Express on 03.12.2023.
8. 12660 Shalimar-Nagercoil Express on 06.12.2023.
9. 12835 Hatia-SMVB Express on 03.12.2023.
10. 12836 SMVB-Hatia Express on 05.12.2023.
11. 12839 Howrah-Chennai Express on 02.12.2023, 03.12.2023 & 04.12.2023.
12. 12840 Chennai-Howrah Express on 04.12.2023, 05.12.2023 & 06.12.2023.
13. 12841 Shalimar- Chennai Coromandal Express on 03.12.2023, 04.12.2023 & 05.12.2023.
14. 12842 Chennai-Shalimar Coromandal Express on 04.12.2023, 05.12.2023 & 06.12.2023.
15. 12845 Bhubaneswar-SMVB Express on 03.12.2023.
16. 12846 SMVB-Bhubaneswar Express on 04.12.2023.
17. 12863 Howrah-SMVB Express on 02.12.2023, 03.12.2023 & 04.12.2023.
18. 12864 SMVB-Howrah Express on 04.12.2023, 05.12.2023 & 06.12.2023.
19. 12867 Howrah-Puducherry Express on 03.12.2023.
20. 12868 Puducherry-Howrah Express on 06.12.2023.
21. 13351 Dhanbad-Allepy Express on 03.12.2023 & 04.12.2023.
22. 13352 Allepy-Dhanbad Express on 06.12.2023 & 07.12.2023.
23. 15228 Muzaffarpur-SMVB Express on 04.12.2023.
24. 15227 SMVB-Muzaffarpur Express on 07.12.2023.
25. 15629 Tambaram-Silghat Town Express on 04.12.2023.
26. 15630 Silghat Town-Tambaram Express on 08.12.2023.
27. 17488 Visakhapatnam-Kadapa Tirumala Express on 03.12.2023, 04.12.2023 & 05.12.2023.
28. 17487 Kadapa-Visakhapatnam Tirumala Express on 04.12.2023, 05.12.2023 & 06.12.2023.
29. 18189 Tatanagar-Ernakulam Express on 03.12.2023.
30. 18190 Ernakulam-Tatanagar Express on 05.12.2023.
31. 18637 Hatia-SMVB Express on 02.12.2023.
32. 18638 SMVB-Hatia Express on 05.12.2023.
33. 22504 Dibrugarh-Kanyakumari Vivek Express on 02.12.2023 & 03.12.2023.
34. 22503 Kanyakumari-Dibrugarh Vivek Express on 06.12.2023 & 07.12.2023.
35. 22604 Villupuram-Kharagpur Express on 05.12.2023.
36. 22603 Kharagpur-Villupuram Express on 07.12.2023.
37. 22643 Ernakulam-Patna Express on 04.12.2023.
38. 22644 Patna-Ernakulam Express on 07.12.2023.
39. 22708 Tirupati-Visakhapatnam Express on 03.12.2023.
40. 22707 Visakhapatnam-Tirupati Express on 04.12.2023.
41. 22837 Hatia-Ernakulam Express on 04.12.2023.
42. 22838 Ernakulam-Hatial Express on 06.12.2023.
43. 22841 Santragachi-Tambram Express on 04.12.2023.
44. 22842 Tambram-Santragachi Express on 06.12.2023.
45. 22855 Santragachi-Tirupati Express on 03.12.2023.
46. 22856 Tirupati-Santragachi Express on 04.12.2023.
47. 22859 Puri-Chennai Express on 03.12.2023.
48. 22860 Chennai-Puri Express on 04.12.2023.
49. 22863 Howrah-SMVB Express on 04.12.2023.
50. 22864 SMVB-Howrah Express on 06.12.2023.
51. 22869 Visakhapatnam-Chennai Express on 04.12.2023.
52. 22870 Chennai-Visakhapatnam Express on 05.12.2023.
53. 22871 Bhubaneswar-Tirupati Express on 03.12.2023.
54. 22872 Tirupati-Bhubaneswar Express on 04.12.2023.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued Orange warning to five districts of the State on December 5. The districts are Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam. IMD has predicted heavy rainfall at several places of these districts. These districts may witness 115-201mm rainfall. Similarly, yellow warning has been issued to Nabarangpur, Kalahandi and Kandhamal.
As per IMD, the deep depression is moving at a speed of 13km per hours in west-north-west direction in the last six hours. It is likely to intensify further and turn into a cyclone in the next 24 hours.
It is likely to reach South Andhra Pradesh adjacent to Tamil Nadu coasts on December 4 and cross between Nellore and Machilipatnam in Chennai on December 5. During the period, the wind speed is likely to reach 100km per hour.
Fishermen have also been advised not to venture into the sea from December 4 due to probable turbulent sea conditions. Whoever out at sea has been advised to return to coast immediately.
“Under the effect of the cyclone, some places in Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam and one or two places in Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Kandhamal and coastal districts are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall on December 3. Orange warning has been issued to five districts- Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam on December 5. These districts are likely to witness wind speed up to 30-40 km per hour. Ganjam, Gajapati, Jagatsinghpur and Puri are likely to witness wind speed upto 35-45 km per hour,” said meteorologist Umasankar Das.
The cyclonic storm Midhili is about 190 km east of Paradip (Odisha), 200 km south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal), and 220 km southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said that cyclonic storm Midhili is likely to continue to move north-north-eastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Khepupara with a wind speed of 60-70kmph gusting to 80kmph during the night of November 17 and early hours of November 18, 2023.
As per IMD, the deep depression is likely to continue to move north-north-eastwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm and cross Bangladesh coast between Mongla and Khepupara around the morning of November 18.
IMD Bhubaneswar scientist, Uma Shankar Das said even though the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. However, there will be no impact on Odisha, he said.
"There is every likelihood that the deep depression may intensify into a cyclonic storm. There will be no much impact on Odisha as the system has started to recurve. There is every possibility of intense heavy rainfall in two Odisha districts- Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur today and a yellow warning has been issued. Neighbouring districts are also likely to experience rainfall," said Das.
According to Das, no major rainfall is usually witnessed during the recurving phase of the system.
"The cyclonic storm is likely to form by tomorrow. There will be no major change in the maximum and minimum temperature in the coming days in Odisha. As deep depression system prevails, cloudy weather conditions will prevail in the state," Das added.
On this occasion, in a video message, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik said disaster has been a big challenge for Odisha. The state has always been tackling each disaster successfully. This year’s Bahanaga train tragedy is the biggest example of this.
While addressing the gathering, Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) Satyabrata Sahu said all the villages would be so prepared that they could face any disaster. A sum of Rs 2,000 crore would be spent on the infrastructure development. A huge change has taken place in the last ten years as almost all the kutcha houses have been converted into pucca ones.
What has become the government’s cause of headache is the increasing number of deaths due to lightning, snake bites and drowning. The Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force (ODRAF) teams would be deployed in the districts that are reporting such cases, he said.
Later, while replying to the queries of journalists, SRC Sahu said, “This year, our state has been awarded as the best state which is our biggest achievement. Following the direction of the Chief Minister, the people of Odisha are trying to ensure zero casualty during any disaster. We are now focusing on how to face chemical and biological disaster because had the goods train (involved in the Balasore train accident) been a chemical carrying one, the situation would have been different.”
Similarly, while talking to journalists, Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Sudam Marndi said, “Odisha faced a super cyclone on October 29, 1999. Since that day, Odisha has been observing the day as a ‘Sankalp Diwas’. Now what is in our focus is if something happens in the future, how to handle the situation. After the Super Cyclone, the Disaster Management department has been strengthened and so many steps have been taken to ensure quick rescue operation and dissemination of messages during such eventualities.”
It lay centered over coastal Bangladesh, about 180 km east of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 40 km south-southeast of Chittagong (Bangladesh).
As per IMD, it is very likely to move north-eastwards and weaken into a deep depression during the next six hours and further into a depression during the subsequent six hours.
Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, and south Assam & Meghalaya: Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at many places with isolated heavy rainfall over Mizoram on October 25. Light to moderate rainfall is likely to occur at several places over Mizoram and Tripura on October 26.
Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, and east Arunachal Pradesh on October 25 and 26. Wind warning
Northeast Bay of Bengal: Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is prevailing and likely to decrease gradually becoming Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph by 25th noon and would decrease thereafter.
Northwest Bay of Bengal: Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is prevailing and likely to continue during the next 6 hours and decrease thereafter.
As per IMD, it is very likely to maintain its intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for a few hours. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around evening of October 25 as a cyclonic storm with wind speed of 65 to 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph.
Northeast Bay of Bengal: Gale wind speed reaching 115-125 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is prevailing. It is likely to become 120-130 kmph gusting 140 kmph during next 6 hours. It would decrease gradually thereafter becoming Gale wind speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph by October 24 midnight, and 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by 25th evening and would decrease thereafter.
Northwest Bay of Bengal: Gale wind speed reaching 115-125 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is prevailing. It is likely to become 120-130 kmph gusting 140 kmph during next 6 hours. It would decrease gradually thereafter becoming Gale wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph by 24th midnight, and squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph by 25th evening and would decrease thereafter.
Along & off Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh and north Myanmar coasts: Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely prevailing along and off Odisha coast on October 24. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is prevailing along & off West Bengal, Bangladesh and North Myanmar coasts from 24th morning.
It would gradually increase becoming 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off Bangladesh coast, 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph along & off north Myanmar coast and 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph along & off west Bengal coast on 25th October.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed that the severe cyclonic storm Hamoon has intensified into VSCS about 290 km east of Paradip (Odisha), 270 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal), 230 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The IMD further informed that it is likely to weaken gradually while moving north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around evening of October 25 as a cyclonic storm with wind speed of 65 to 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph.
Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and south Assam and Meghalaya: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall over Mizoram and heavy to very rainfall over Tripura is likely on October 24. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the same region on October 25. Rainfall intensity will decrease on October 26 with light to moderate rainfall at a few places over the region.
Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over south Assam and eastern Meghalaya on October 24 and 25 with isolated heavy rainfall over south Assam.
Coastal Districts of Odisha: Light to moderate rainfall at most places are likely on October 24.
Coastal Districts of West Bengal: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall over coastal areas of West Bengal likely on October 24.
As per the IMD, the deep depression intensified into a cyclonic storm after moving at a speed of 14 kmph during the past six hours. Currently, cyclone Hamoon is about 230 km south-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 360 km south of Digha (West Bengal), and 510 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
It is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over the northwest Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours, said the IMD.
As per the IMD, it is very likely to move nearly north-northeast-wards and cross the Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around noon of October 25 as a deep depression.
Earlier, the IMD had clearly stated that the impact of cyclone Hamoon will not be felt in Odisha. However, several parts of Odisha are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall activity under its impact.
Apart from this, there could be some damage to puja pandals under the influence of gusty winds, the IMD DG said.
As per the IMD, the cyclonic storm is very likely to move nearly north-northeast-wards and cross the Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around the evening of October 25 as a deep depression.
Earlier, the IMD had ruled out any major impact of cyclone Hamoon on Odisha. However, several parts of Odisha are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall activities. The IMD has also sounded a ‘yellow warning’ for heavy rainfall in three Odisha districts- Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur. The alert will remain valid till 0830 hours of October 24, 2023.
Day 1 (Valid upto 0830 hrs IST of 24.10.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower is very likely to occur at many places over the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, at a few places over the rest districts of coastal Odisha, over the districts of Sundargarh, Deogarh, Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Dhenkanal, Boudh, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Bhadrak,Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur.
Day 2 (Valid from 0830 hrs ISTof 24.10.2023 to 0830 hrs IST of 25.10.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower is very likely to occur at many places over the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, at a few places over the rest districts of Coastal Odisha,Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj.
Day 3 (Valid from 0830 hrs IST of 25.10.2023 to 0830 hrs IST of 26.10.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower very likely to occur a few places over the rest districts of Mayurbhanj, Balasore, Bhadrak , at one or two places over the rest districts of Coastal Odisha,Keonjhar, Angul, Dhenkanal, Kandhamal, Boudh.
Day 4 (Valid from 0830 hrs IST of 26.10.2023 to 0830 hrs IST of 27.10.2023)
Light to moderate rain/ thundershower is very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Mayurbhanj, Balasore, Bhadrak.
IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra today said that the deep depression is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by this evening. The storm will have no major impact on Odisha. Light rain will occur in coastal areas of north and coastal Odisha, said Mohapatra.
According to Mohapatra, the intensity of wind speed when the deep depression turns into a cyclonic storm will be 80 to 9-0 km/hr gusting up to 100 km/hr.
“When the cyclonic storm will be over the north Bay of Bengal, it will gradually weaken and by October 25 it will cross Bangladesh as a deep depression. As far as Odisha is concerned, several parts of the state will experience rainfall activities on October 23 and October 24,” said Mohapatra.
The IMD chief further informed that several parts of Odisha from Jagatsinghpur to Balasore and others are also likely to experience heavy rainfall activities. However, the rainfall activities will not create much problems. However, as far as puja pandals are concerned, people need to be cautious as wind speed is likely to increase.
The puja pandals which are not strong enough, might suffer damage to some extent under the influence of the winds, said IMD DG.
As per IMD, cyclone Tej will gradually weaken into a very severe cyclonic storm during the next six hours. As per the forecast, it is likely to cross Yemen coast close to Al-Ghaidah around the early hours of October 24 as a very severe cyclonic storm with wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph.
Southwest Arabian Sea: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph prevailing over the region is likely to decrease gradually from today evening.
Westcentral Arabian Sea: Gale wind speed reaching 165-175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph is prevailing and is likely to decrease gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph by 23rd noon and 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph by early hours of 24th October.
It would decrease rapidly after the landfall becoming Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph in the morning of 25th October.
Citing the special bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today, the SRC said that the Deep Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm in the next six hours.
Once the cyclone is formed, it will be known as ‘Hamoon’. It is very likely to move nearly north-northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around 25th October evening as a Deep Depression.
Advisory
The IMD has forecast that light to moderate rainfalls will be experienced in coastal parts of West Bengal, Odisha and Bangladesh between October 23 and 25. Under the impact of the cyclone, the sea may remain stormy till October 27.
Speaking to media, Director General of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Cloud masses have meanwhile reached the parts of north West Bengal, touching over the coastal Odisha, coastal Bengal and parts of Bangladesh. Between October 23 and 25, coastal Odisha and Bengal are likely to experience light to moderate rainfalls."
He further informed that during this time, the wind speed will gradually pick up and reach 45 to 55 km per hour by October 24 in coastal Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh while the deep depression is mainly moving towards Bangladesh, and not towards Odisha.
The major impact of the cyclonic storm will be on the Bangladesh and adjoining parts of West Bengal, he added, stating, “Hence, we have not issued warnings of heavy rainfall in Odisha and West Bengal.”
Reportedly, one or two places in coastal districts of Odisha are likely to witness light to moderate rain/ thundershower while dry weather is likely to prevail over interior districts
As the sea will be stormy till October 27, fishermen have been warned against venturing into West-central Bay of Bengal till 25.
Moreover, it has also been predicted that light to moderate rain/ thundershower is very likely to occur at a few places over the districts of coastal Odisha, at one or two places of Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Dhenkanal, Boudh, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri.
As per IMD, the depression now lies centered some 610 km south of Paradip (Odisha), 760 km south of Digha (West Bengal), and 980 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is likely to further intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours.
It is likely to move northwestwards during the next 12 hours, then recurve and move north-northeastwards during the subsequent three days towards Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts.
Uma Shankar Das, IMD Scientist in Bhubaneswar today informed that the low-pressure system has intensified into a deep depression and it is likely to intensify into a deep depression. Similarly, it will further intensify into a 'cyclonic storm'.
According to Das, there will be no much impact on Odisha and no warning has been issued so far. As wind speed is likely to increase, the sea conditions are likely to remain rough and hence the fishermen from Odisha have been urged to return to the shore by tonight. Similarly, several parts of coastal Odisha are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall activities, Das added.
Cyclonic Storm “Tej” (pronounced as Tej) over the southwest Arabian Sea moved north-westwards with a speed of 20 kmph during the past six hours on Sunday and lay centered over the same region, about 260 km east-southeast of Socotra (Yemen), 630 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman) and 650 km southeast of Al Ghaidah (Yemen).
As per IMD, it is very likely to move northwestwards till October 24 morning and then north-northwestwards. "It is likely to cross Yemen-Oman coasts between Al Ghaidah (Yemen) & Salalah (Oman) around the evening of October 24," said IMD in its latest bulletin.
Southwest Arabian Sea:
Gale wind speed reaching 140-150 kmph gusting to 160 kmph is prevailing and likely to increase gradually becoming 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph by morning of 22nd October. Thereafter, it is likely to decrease gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph by morning of 23rd and Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph by morning of 24th October. It would decrease gradually thereafter.
Westcentral Arabian Sea:
Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph is prevailing and likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph in the morning of 22nd, 180-190 kmph gusting to 210 kmph in the evening of 22nd till morning of 23rd October. Thereafter, it is likely to decrease gradually from evening of 23rd October becoming Gale wind speed reaching 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph by 24th morning and 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph on 25th morning.
It would decrease rapidly after the landfall becoming Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph in the evening of 25th October.
As per IMD, the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.
Similarly, it will further into a ‘Severe Cyclonic Storm’ on October 23, 2023.
Thereafter, it would move north-northwestwards from October 24 morning towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coasts.
Southwest Arabian Sea:
Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is prevailing and likely to increase gradually becoming 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph by morning of October 21, 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph by morning of 22nd October.
Westcentral Arabian Sea:
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is prevailing and likely togradually increase becoming 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on 21st October.
Gale wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is likely to prevail in the morning of 22nd becoming 95-105 kmph gusting to 115 kmph by morning of 23rd and further 105-115 kmph gusting to 125 kmph in the evening of 23rd October.
At the meeting, the Chief Secretary laid emphasis on densification of Mangroves as effective natural safeguards against cyclones. He also advised to take up massive palm tree plantation drive to prevent lightning deaths. He advised the Agriculture and Farmers’ Empowerment Department, Forest, Environment and Climate Change Department to take up more and more Palm tree plantations in all areas, particularly in the districts that are prone to lightning.
He also underlined the procurement of Search & Rescue Equipment, accessories and Vehicles for Odisha Fire & Emergency Services after being approved by the SEC. An amount of Rs. 159, 02, 19,356 has already been released against the proposal of Rs. 240,33,51,108.
The meeting also discussed mitigation proposals received for funding out of the State Disaster Mitigation Fund (SDMF) and National Disaster Mitigation Fund (NDMF). While the Works Department submitted a proposal of Rs. 8,128.98 lakh for the construction of eight Flood Resilient Roads in Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Sambalpur and Kalahandi districts, the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) placed a non-structural lightning mitigation proposal for implementation of lightning alert/forecast system in collaboration with Earth Network and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune through SATARK App for three years (2023-24, 2024-25 & 2025-26) at the cost of Rs 50 lakh per year.
Similarly, the OSDMA also submitted a proposal of Rs. 13,21,200 for the implementation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Ready (IOTR) Programmes in 24 identified tsunami-prone villages of six coastal districts for obtaining the Tsunami Ready Certification from IOC-UNESCO and including organizing an orientation programme on tsunami for key stakeholders of the tsunami-prone urban local bodies like Puri, Konark, Gopalpur and Paradip.
Keeping the cyclone in view, a preparatory meeting under the chairmanship of Chief Secretary Pradeep Kumar Jena was convened at Lok Seva Bhawan in Bhubaneswar on Thursday.
Laying emphasis on cooperation and coordination, the Chief Secretary directed all the concerned departments to keep their powder dry and ensure all the arrangements are in place.
The meeting was attended by the development commissioner, SRC, additional chief secretary of the Energy Department, DG of the Fire department and secretaries of as many as 12 departments.
According to the predictions of the IMD, the Monsoon will withdraw from the state by October 10. Usually, there is a possibility of cyclone within 45 days of the withdrawal of the Monsoon. This is why the state government has started preparation in advance.
Notably, Odisha is best known for its cyclone management. In the past, it was seen the government managed to minimise the casualties in natural disasters like cyclones by taking several measures well in advance.
Mohapatra said a cyclonic circulation may form over east-central Bay of Bengal around the end of September and the system may concentrate into a low pressure area in October first week. The low pressure may further intensify into a depression.
"October is a cyclone-prone month for Odisha. Depressions and cyclones are formed in the Bay of Bengal during this month. We have kept a vigil on the system. After a cyclonic circulation develops, a clear picture will emerge and we will share further details," Mohapatra said.
"As of now, we have not predicted any cyclone. People should not believe in rumours and instead follow the information shared by the IMD," he added.
Mohapatra said there is a low probability of intensification of the system into a depression.
"The system may move west-north-westwards. However, when it will reach the coast has not been predicted yet," he added.
As per sources, a low pressure area is likely to develop over the east central Bay of Bengal around September 28. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the first week of October.
International meteorologist of AccuWeather, Jason Nicholls, in a tweet informed about the formation of the cyclone.
"Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October," he wrote on his X handle.
The ECMWF and GFS models also indicated the formation of a low pressure and its intensification into a cyclone heading towards east coast of India.
Moreover, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its two-week forecast earlier had mentioned about possibility of Cyclogenesis towards 2nd week that is 29th September to 5th October.
If the system intensifies into a cyclone, it will be known as ‘Tej’. The name has been suggested by India.
As per sources, the probable cyclonic storm may affect east India, especially for North Andhra and south Odisha. Increased rainfall activity on the west coast during the end of September and early October is expected.
According to local media, hundreds of people had to be rescued from their rooftops in Mucum as 85 per cent of the town was flooded, the BBC reported.
More than 300 mm of rain hit the state in less than 24 hours, triggering floods and landslides, officials said.
Calling the situation as the state's worst-ever weather disaster, Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite told reporters on Tuesday that 15 more bodies had been found in Mucum earlier in the day, bringing the death toll to 21.
"There are still people missing," the BBC quoted Mucum Mayor Mateus Trojan as saying to the local media.
"The death toll might climb higher. The town of Mucum as we knew it no longer exists."
Rescue workers have been using helicopters to reach areas cut off by flooding.
Meanwhile, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the federal government was ready to help.
In February, at least 40 people were killed in flooding and landslides in Brazil's Sao Paulo state. while last year some 100 persons died as torrential rain triggered landslides and torrents of mud near the city of Recife.
Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation.
In the study, the team from Kochi’s Cochin University of Science and Technology, as well as from Canada and the US, investigated the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5 degrees N and 11 degrees N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years.
The results, published in the journal Nature Communications, revealed a marked 43 per cent decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981-2010) compared to earlier (1951-1980).
The decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear, the researchers said.
However, "in the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favourable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase", they said.
"Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies," they added in the paper.
PDO can be explained as a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean, which waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years. And just like El Nino/La Nina, it has an effect on the sea surface temperatures as well as impacting the northeast Indian summer monsoon.
Further, the scientists said the north Indian Ocean in the post-monsoon season (October-November-December or OND) is a hotbed for low-latitude cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5 degrees and 11 degrees latitude) that constitute about 60 per cent of all tropical cyclones formed in the north Indian Ocean (since 1951) but has received relatively less attention.
The LLCs are much smaller in size than those in higher latitudes but intensify more rapidly. LLCs also can lead to devastating damages due to insufficient warning and preparation time, the scientists said, citing the example of cyclone Ockhi, which travelled over 2,000 km and devastated parts of Sri Lanka and India with extensive damage to properties and the loss of lives of 884 people in November 2017.
Although the LLC frequency has decreased, once an LLC is formed, favourable thermodynamic conditions in the low-latitudes and north of 11 degrees N lead to the strengthening of the cyclonic storms in recent decades. However, the strengthening of LLCs in recent decades must be interpreted with caution due to the unreliability of the tropical cyclone intensity data in the pre-satellite era.
"The results present an interesting situation where remote influence by natural climate variability (PDO) causes fewer cyclones, but favourable local thermodynamic conditions due to global warming make them slightly stronger," the team said.
"When this tug-of-war between the natural and anthropogenic forcing changes, and they begin to work synergistically, the risk of severe cyclones in the post-monsoon north Indian Ocean may be amplified," they said, adding the findings may guide planning and mitigating LLC-induced disaster in the Indian subcontinent.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday informed that it is very likely to continue to move east-northeastwards and maintain the intensity of Depression till forenoon today.
Heavy Rainfall Warning (Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh)
Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Southwest Rajasthan on June 18. Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over Southeast Rajasthan on June 18 and June 19 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on June 19.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy rainfall over Northeast Rajasthan on June 18 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on June 19.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh on June 19.
Wind Warning For Rajasthan And Adjoining North Gujarat
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely till morning of June 18 over South Rajasthan and adjoining North Gujarat and decrease thereafter becoming strong wind speed reaching 25-35 kmph gusting to 45 kmph thereafter over East Rajasthan and adjoining areas till evening of June 18.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday informed that it is very likely to move nearly northeastwards and weaken further into a depression during the next 12 hours.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is likely to occur over south Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat & Kutch on June 17.
Northeast Arabian Sea: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is likely to prevail during the next 12 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is prevailing over Kutch and northern districts of Saurashtra.
It is likely to further decrease becoming 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph from the forenoon. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over southern districts of Saurashtra, Gulf of Kutch and adjoining areas during next 6 hours.
As per the IMD, isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is likely to occur over the north Gujarat region and south Rajasthan today and over south Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat region on June 17.
Thundersquall (60-70 kmph) and hailstorm are very likely to occur at isolated places over Uttarakhand on June 18. Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over southwest Rajasthan on 16 th & 17th June; southeast Rajasthan on 17th & 18th June.
Isolated Heavy to very heavy rainfall also likely over southwest Rajasthan on 18th; east Rajasthan on 19th and heavy rainfall over southeast Rajasthan on 16th & 20th June; Uttarakhand on 18th & 19th; northwest Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh on 19th & 20th June.
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning very likely over the region during next five days. Isolated Heavy rainfall also likely over Kerala & Tamil Nadu during 18th-20th.
Earlier, the very severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy moved northeastwards and crossed Saurashtra-Kutch coast near Jakhau Port (Gujarat) between 2230and 2330 IST of June 15 with wind speed of 115-125 kmph.
Meanwhile, the IMD has issued an 'Orange alert' for parts of Rajasthan -- Barmer, Jalore, Jaisalmer, Sirohi, Jodhpur, Pali and nearby places -- and predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall today.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely over Saurashtra & Kutch, isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is likely over north Gujarat region and south Rajasthan on 16th and over south Rajasthan & adjoining north Gujarat region on 17th June.
Wind warning
Northeast Arabian Sea: Gale wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing and likely to become squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph by 16th June afternoon.
Adjoining areas of Eastcentral Arabian Sea: Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail till afternoon of 16th June.
Among other things, the PM sought to know the steps taken by the state administration for the safety of wild animals, especially the lions in the Gir forest.
"PM Modi held a telephonic conversation with me and took all the details about the current situation of Gujarat following the landfall of cyclone Biparjoy. He also enquired about the steps taken by the government for the safety of all wild animals, including the lions of Gir Forest," Patel tweeted.
The CM also visited the State Emergency Operations Centre in Gandhinagar and held a meeting with top officials to review the situation, said an official release.
During the meeting, Patel was informed that as many as one lakh people living in coastal districts such as Kutch, Junagadh and Devbhumi Dwarka were shifted to temporary shelters as a precautionary measure before the cyclone hit the coast on Thursday evening, said the release.
Apart from teams formed to restore electricity, water and road connectivity, the state Forest Department has also constituted 184 'rapid action' squads to rescue wild animals and to clear fallen trees in the entire Asiatic lion zone, it said.
While some radio-collared lions are being tracked through satellite signals, others are being tracked by the forest staff. Movement of 40 lions living near the coastal areas is also being closely monitored, said the release.
As many as 58 control rooms have been set up to address any wildlife emergency, it added.
The cyclone in the Arabian Sea started making landfall at Jakhau Port in Kutch district around 6.30 pm and the entire process will be completed by midnight, the IMD said.
The Ministry has cautioned that reporting from the ground level may pose serious risks to the safety and security of the reporters and the cameramen and other personnel deployed by the private satellite TV channels for reporting of this incident. The Ministry has also expressed concern that such ground reporting may risk the lives of the various personnel deployed.
The Ministry has strongly advised media organisations to undertake abundant precaution and due care in the matter of deployment of their personnel in the areas likely to be affected. It has also strongly recommended that under no circumstances the organization should take decisions for deployment of such personnel in a way that may compromise the safety and security of the media personnel and follow the precautions being issued by local the administration.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy' is expected to hit the western coast of the country in the immediate future which is likely to cause disruption of varying dimensions. The Ministry has reassured people that Central Government along with the State Governments is making all efforts to mitigate the impact of the Cyclone.
The very severe cyclonic storm “Biparjoy” pronounced as "BIPORJOY" over north-east Arabian Sea is very likely to move nearly north-east-wards and cross Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) near Jakhau Port (Gujarat) by the evening of June 15.
It will cross as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph tomorrow, said IMD.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely over Kachchh, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagarh, and Morbi districts of Saurashtra & Kutch on 14thJune.
The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places is very likely over Kachchh, Devbhumi Dwarka & Jamnagar, and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi & Junagarh districts of Gujarat and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over remaining districts of Saurashtra and north Gujarat region on 15th June.
Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely over north Gujarat and adjoining south Rajasthan on the 16th and southeast Rajasthan & adjoining North Gujarat region on 17th June.